Walsall vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction

Monday night football down at the Bescot Stadium, and we've got a right interesting clash between Walsall and Milton Keynes Dons. The Saddlers are hosting a side flying high in the promotion race, but if recent form at home is anything to go by, we might be in for an early night with not much goalmouth action.

Let's have a look at the hosts first, and blimey, it's been a struggle. Walsall have managed just one win in their last ten outings - that was a cracking 3-1 away at Tranmere back on the 17th of January, but since then it's been draw after draw. Five draws in their last six league games, including back-to-back 0-0 snoozefests at home against Crawley and Accrington. They're turning the Bescot into Fort Knox, but unfortunately they've forgotten where they put the key to the opposition goal. Just 0.33 goals per game at home in their last three - that's one goal in three matches, mate. Even my nan could keep a clean sheet against that sort of firepower.

Now MK Dons are a different kettle of fish entirely. Sitting pretty in 4th spot, unbeaten in eight league games since that little blip against Colchester on New Year's Day. They've been solid as a rock at the back, keeping four clean sheets in their last ten and conceding just 0.90 per game. Sure, they put five past Shrewsbury and three past Cheltenham recently, showing they can turn on the style, but away from home they've been more professional than prolific - 1.75 goals per game on the road, which is decent but not exactly setting the world alight.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading too. MK Dons edge it overall with four wins to Walsall's three, and the last meeting back in August ended 1-0. Tight margins, see?

Here's the rub: Walsall can't score at home (two 0-0 draws in their last three at the Bescot), and MK Dons are organised enough to keep things tight. The goal expectancy numbers suggest we're looking at around 2.17 total goals for this one, and with the Saddlers averaging under a goal a game at home recently, the value is screaming at us.

Key Points:

• Walsall have scored just once in their last three home matches (0.33 goals per game)

• MK Dons have kept four clean sheets in their last ten games, conceding just 0.90 per game

• The last meeting between these two finished 1-0 back in August

• Walsall have drawn five of their last six league games, including goalless draws against Crawley and Accrington

• MK Dons are unbeaten in their last eight League Two matches

Summary:

Walsall's attack has gone missing at the Bescot, and while MK Dons are the better side, they're not exactly free-scoring away from home. With the hosts struggling to find the net and the visitors solid at the back, I'm backing Under 2.5 goals at 1.70. It might not be pretty, but it should pay the bills.