Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Arsenal are sitting pretty at the top of the table, and you can see why - they're absolutely smashing it at home. 100% win rate in their last five at their own gaff, scoring nearly three goals a game while barely letting any in. That's proper dominant stuff.

They've been taking on all comers too - beat Bayern Munich 3-1, hammered Tottenham 4-1, and even got a point at Chelsea. Only dropped points in two draws all season, one of them against a Sunderland side who've been tricky to beat. The Gunners are averaging 2.3 goals per game overall, but at home? That jumps up to 2.8. They're just relentless.

Brentford, bless 'em, are having a decent season sitting in 10th, but their away form is a bit hit and miss. Only winning 40% of their road trips, and they've been shipping goals - 1.4 per game on their travels. They can score though, put three past both Newcastle and Liverpool recently, but they also failed to score against Brighton and Crystal Palace away from home.

Head-to-head, Arsenal have the edge historically, though interestingly they've never beaten Brentford at home in the Premier League era - two draws from two meetings. Last time out was a 1-1 draw back in April.

The stats are pointing towards goals here. Arsenal are scoring for fun at home, Brentford can find the net but also concede. The goal expectancy suggests around 3.2 goals in this match, which makes the over 2.5 look appealing at 1.73. Arsenal's defense has been solid at home (only 0.4 goals conceded per game), but Brentford have scored in 60% of their recent matches.

Both teams to score at 2.05 could be worth a punt too, but given Arsenal's home defensive record and Brentford's away struggles, I'm leaning towards the goals market instead.