Colorado Rapids vs Portland Timbers Prediction

Alright, mate! Week two of the MLS season is upon us and we've got a cracker out in Colorado as the Rapids host the Portland Timbers. Now, I know what you're thinking - it's early doors, nobody knows what shape anyone's really in yet - but that's where the value hides, ain't it?

Colorado kicked off their campaign with a bit of a stinker, losing 2-0 up in Seattle. But don't let that fool ya - this lot are proper stubborn at home. We're talking four games unbeaten on their own patch, with draws against Columbus (0-0) and LAFC (2-2) in recent months. The Rapids have only lost one of their last four at home, and that defensive solidity - conceding just one a game on average - gives 'em a foundation.

But here's the thing - Portland might be the visitors, but they absolutely love playing against Colorado. The Timbers have won six of the last nine meetings between these two, including a 2-1 win back in May and a 3-0 drubbing in March last year. The goals have been flying in too - seven of those nine matches went over 2.5 goals, with Portland sticking four past the Rapids in two of the last five. Even when Colorado won at home in this fixture, it was a 2-1 thriller.

Portland started their season with a bang - a 3-2 win over Columbus that had everything. Sure, their away form last year was ropey (losing two-thirds of their road trips), but they know where the net is. Both these sides have been leaking goals recently - Colorado's conceded 18 in their last ten (including that 4-2 pasting by Sporting KC), Portland 17 in theirs (including a 4-0 hiding from San Diego). The goal expectancy for this one sits at nearly three goals (2.79), and looking at the history between 'em, that sounds about right.

The bookies are offering 1.57 for over 2.5 goals, which might look a bit skinny at first glance, but when you consider these two have served up goal-fests in seven of their last nine meetings, and both defences look about as solid as a chocolate teapot, there's definitely a few quid to be made.

Key Points:

• Colorado are unbeaten in their last 4 home games (2 wins, 2 draws) but kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 overall

• Portland have won 6 of the last 9 H2H meetings, with 7 of those 9 games going over 2.5 goals

• Both teams conceded heavily in their last 10 matches (Colorado 1.80 per game, Portland 1.70 per game)

• Goal expectancy sits at 2.79 for this match, well above the 2.5 line

• Portland's away form is poor (66% loss rate) but they scored three in their MLS opener (3-2 win vs Columbus)

Summary: Forget trying to pick a winner in this one - the head-to-head is too one-sided for Portland to trust the Rapids at 2.20, but Portland's away day blues make the 3.00 look risky too. Instead, let's sit back and enjoy the fireworks. Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 is the play here - these two just can't help but serve up a goal-fest when they meet.