Pachuca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash between Pachuca and the Pumas. On paper, these two are neck and neck in the table - just one point separating them in 9th and 10th. But when you dig into the recent form, blimey, it's a different story altogether.

Pachuca's home form has been absolutely shocking, mate. We're talking proper dreadful stuff - they've lost four of their last five games on their own patch, scoring a measly 0.6 goals per game at home. That's not just bad, that's relegation-level bad! They've recently failed to score against both Cruz Azul and Guadalajara Chivas at home, and even got beaten 2-0 by Club Queretaro, who're sitting 12th in the table. Not exactly the form of a team that should be favorites at home, is it?

Now flip over to Pumas, and it's like watching a different sport entirely. They're banging in 1.9 goals per game over their last ten matches, and away from home they're still managing 1.71 goals per game. Their recent results show some proper quality too - that 3-2 win away to Cruz Azul (who're third in the table) was top-drawer stuff. They've also put four past both Club Tijuana and Mazatlán recently.

The head-to-head doesn't give Pachuca much comfort either - they've only won 20% of their home meetings against Pumas. When these two last met back in February, Pumas came away with a 2-1 win.

Looking at the stats, Pumas have both teams scoring in 90% of their recent games, while Pachuca are conceding 1.4 goals per game. Put it all together and you've got a team that can't score at home against a team that can't stop scoring away from home.

The bookies have Pachuca as favorites at 1.85, which frankly looks like a joke given their home form. Pumas at 4.00 might tempt some, but I'm looking at the both teams to score market at 1.70 - that looks like the smart money to me.