AD Ceuta FC vs Mirandes Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Segunda División scrap between AD Ceuta FC and Mirandes. Both sides are knocking around the bottom half of the table, but there's a right old difference in how they're getting on.

Ceuta, sitting 14th, have been proper solid at home this season. We're talking 75% win rate in their last four at their own patch - that's not bad going, is it? They've kept it tight at the back too, only letting in half a goal per home game on average. Recent results show they can mix it with the best - they held league leaders Cadiz to a 0-0 draw not long ago, and nabbed 1-0 wins against Eibar and Zaragoza. Five clean sheets in their last ten games tells you they know how to defend.

Mirandes, down in 19th, have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde outfit. They're rubbish at home (not won a single home game this season) but actually do better on their travels. Thing is, they can't defend for toffee - only one clean sheet in ten games is shocking stuff. They did put four past Albacete away from home, but then got hammered 5-1 by Deportivo at home. Inconsistent doesn't even cover it.

When you look at the numbers, Ceuta average 0.8 goals per game but only concede 1.2, while Mirandes score 1.0 but let in 1.3. The key difference is that Ceuta are proper organised at home, whereas Mirandes leak goals everywhere they go.

The odds have Ceuta at 2.00 for the win, which seems about right given their home form against Mirandes' away struggles. Both teams are coming into this with a bit of rest - Ceuta had 6 days, Mirandes 7 - so no excuses there.

Given how tight Ceuta are at the back and how dodgy Mirandes are defensively, I'm leaning towards the home side here. They've shown they can grind out results against decent opposition, and Mirandes just don't travel well enough to fancy their chances.

Key Points:

• Ceuta have won 75% of their last 4 home games

• Mirandes have won 0% of their last 4 home games but 33% away

• Ceuta have kept 5 clean sheets in last 10 games (50% rate)

• Mirandes have only 1 clean sheet in last 10 games (10% rate)

• Ceuta held league leaders Cadiz to 0-0 draw recently

• Mirandes conceded 5 goals in their last home game

This has got 1-0 or 2-0 written all over it. Ceuta's home form and defensive solidity should see them through against a Mirandes side that's all over the place defensively.