Columbus Crew vs Nashville SC Prediction

Alright, settle in with your pint, 'cause we've got a right head-scratcher from the MLS this weekend. Columbus Crew are hosting Nashville SC, and looking at the early season form, something don't add up with the bookies' prices.

Columbus are having a proper stinker of a start to their campaign. Three games in and they're still searching for their first win – two draws and a defeat leaving them languishing down in 11th spot with just two points on the board. They fired blanks in a 0-0 snoozefest against Chicago last time out at home, and before that they were held 2-2 by Sporting Kansas City and came unstuck 3-2 at Portland. That's just two wins in their last ten matches, mate.

But don't write off the Crew just yet. When they play at home in the league, they usually mean business. We're talking about a side that's put four past Cincinnati and three past the New York Red Bulls in their own backyard recently. The numbers back it up too – 2.33 goals a game at home and a miserly 0.33 conceded. They've won two-thirds of their last three home league games.

Now let's look at the visitors. Nashville are flying high, sitting pretty in second place with seven points from their opening nine. They're unbeaten with two wins and a draw, including a cracking 3-1 victory over Minnesota last time out. Their defence is tighter than a drum – just 0.70 goals conceded per game over the last ten, and they've kept five clean sheets in that run. They even beat Columbus 1-0 in a friendly back in February, and on the road they've been solid as a rock with no defeats in their last three away days.

When you look at the head-to-head, Nashville have the edge with four wins to Columbus' two from their nine meetings. The Crew have won half their home games against Nashville, but the visitors took the spoils in the most recent encounter and are in far better nick right now.

So here's where it gets interesting. The bookmakers have Columbus as favourites at around 1.95, with Nashville priced up at a juicy 3.50. Now, I'm no genius, but a team sitting second in the table, unbeaten, with a solid defence and a recent win over their opponents in a friendly… at 3.50? That's taking the mickey, that is. Columbus might turn it around eventually, but based on current form and that H2H record, I'm snapping up the away win.

Key Points:

• Columbus are winless in MLS this season (0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) and sit 11th in the Eastern Conference with just 2 points

• Nashville are unbeaten in MLS (2 wins, 1 draw) and occupy 2nd place with 7 points from 9

• Columbus have a strong home record in competitive matches (66.67% win rate) but drew 0-0 with Chicago in their last home outing

• Nashville have kept five clean sheets in their last ten games and concede just 0.67 goals per game away from home

• Nashville beat Columbus 1-0 in a friendly in February and hold a 4-2 advantage in the overall head-to-head record

• Nashville are available at 3.50 despite being higher in the table and in significantly better form

Summary: The bookies seem to be pricing on reputation rather than current form. Nashville at 3.50 represents excellent value against a Columbus side struggling for wins, so get on the away win before the odds drop.