Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Crystal Palace host Aston Villa at Selhurst Park, and on paper, it's a bit of a mismatch at the moment. Villa are sitting pretty in second, a whopping 15 points ahead of Palace in 14th. But football's never that simple, is it? The history between these two tells a very different story.

Villa are absolutely flying. Nine wins from their last ten, blimey. They're scoring for fun – 2.2 goals a game on average – and even on their travels, they're finding the net 2.4 times per outing. They've gone to places like Chelsea and Manchester United and won. Their only recent blip was a 4-1 pasting away at Arsenal, which happens to the best of 'em. The key thing for us punters is that their games are never boring. 90% of their last ten have seen both teams score, and they're conceding over two goals a game away from home. Think 4-3 at Brighton, 3-2 at West Ham... you get the picture.

Now, Palace. They've become a bit of a bogey team for Villa, winning six of the last nine meetings and all four at home. The last time they met, back in August, Palace walloped 'em 3-0. So the Eagles will fancy this, right? Well, their current form says otherwise. They've not won at home in their last four tries (D2, L2), scoring just once in their last three Premier League games at Selhurst. They lost 0-1 to Tottenham and 0-3 to Man City. They're creating chances but not putting them away, with a shot accuracy at home of just 27%. They're conceding nearly two goals a game on their own patch too.

So what's the play? The head-to-head history screams 'Palace', but the current momentum and quality shouts 'Villa'. I reckon the value isn't in picking a winner, because that H2H hoodoo is a proper mental block. The value is in the goals. Villa's away games are absolute goal fests, and even if Palace are struggling, they've shown they can score against Villa. The goal expectancies point to over 2.5, and the odds of 1.91 look generous to me.

Key Points:

Aston Villa have won 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per game.

Villa's last 5 away games have ALL featured over 2.5 goals, with an average of 4.6 goals per game.

Crystal Palace are winless in their last 4 home games (D2, L2), scoring just 0.75 goals per game on average.

However, Palace have a dominant head-to-head record, winning 4 out of 4 at home against Villa.

• Both teams have seen Over 2.5 goals in 6 of Palace's last 10 and 8 of Villa's last 10 matches.

The Simple Tip: All the trends point towards goals. Villa score and concede on the road, Palace have a history of causing them problems. I'm backing the net to bulge at least three times. Over 2.5 Goals is the value bet here.