Leon vs Necaxa Prediction

Howzit my bru! Grab a cold one and fire up the braai because we've got a lekker Liga MX clash coming up this Sunday morning. Leon hosting Necaxa, and if you ask me, this one's got goals written all over it like boerewors on a hot grill.

Now, looking at the form, Leon's been struggling worse than a vegetarian at a steakhouse. They've only managed 2 wins from their last 10 games, sitting 13th in the table with just 7 points. But hey, they did manage a 2-1 win against Santos Laguna last weekend - their first victory since January. Before that, they were leaking goals left and right, including a disappointing 2-0 loss to Queretaro and a 1-0 defeat to Monterrey.

Necaxa, on the other hand, are sitting in 10th with 9 points, and their away form is sharper than a new braai tong. They've won 50% of their away games, scoring 1.83 goals per game on the road. They absolutely smashed Atletico San Luis 4-1 recently and beat Santos Laguna 3-1 away. But watch out - they just got a proper klap from Toluca, losing 3-0 at home.

Here's the thing though - neither of these teams knows what a clean sheet is! Both have 0% clean sheet rates in their last 10 games. Leon's conceded in every single match, letting in 1.60 goals per game at home. Necaxa's defense is just as porous, conceding 1.83 per game away. When they met in a friendly on January 3rd, Necaxa won 2-1, and looking at the head-to-head, both teams have scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these sides.

The goal expectancies are sitting at 1.62 for Leon and 1.72 for Necaxa, giving us over 3.3 expected goals in total. With Leon scoring 1.40 per game at home and Necaxa netting 1.83 away, the net is going to be working harder than a Springbok forward.

Key Points:

• Both teams have 0% clean sheet rates in their last 10 matches

• BTTS has landed in 7 of the last 9 H2H meetings (77.8%)

• Necaxa beat Leon 2-1 in their most recent friendly encounter in January

• Leon's home games average 3.00 total goals (1.40 scored, 1.60 conceded)

• Necaxa's away games average 3.66 total goals (1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded)

• Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their recent form run

Summary:

Listen, I'm not saying bet the farm, but at 1.67, Both Teams to Score is value thicker than a T-bone steak. These defenses leak more than a rusty braai drum, and with the attacking stats both sides are showing, we should see the onion bag bulging at both ends. Cheers!