Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Bundesliga battle between Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg. On paper, it's a mid-table scrap, but there's a bit more to it than that, innit?

Bremen are sitting pretty in 9th with 12 points, while Wolfsburg are languishing down in 12th with just 8 points. That's a decent gap considering we're only 9 games in. The home side have been a bit up and down lately - they've had some proper good results like that 1-0 win against Union Berlin and another 1-0 against St Pauli, both at home. But then they went and got stuffed 0-3 by Freiburg on their own patch, which shows they can be a bit Jekyll and Hyde.

Wolfsburg, on the other hand, have been absolutely shocking recently. Two wins in ten games? That's relegation form, that is. They've lost three of their last four, including a 2-3 home defeat to Hoffenheim and a cup upset 0-1 to Holstein Kiel. Their only away win recently was a tight 1-0 at Hamburg, but they've been shipping goals all over the shop.

Now here's the interesting bit - the head-to-head is completely backwards from what you'd expect. Wolfsburg have won 5 out of 9 against Bremen, and at Bremen's ground, it's even more one-sided: 4 wins for Wolfsburg, 1 for Bremen. Mental, isn't it? But form usually tells the truth in the end, and right now, Bremen look the better side.

Both teams love a goal, don't they? Bremen have been involved in some right thrillers - that 3-3 with Bayer Leverkusen was proper entertainment, and they put four past Gladbach away. Wolfsburg aren't shy either, with that 3-3 against Köln and the recent 2-3 loss to Hoffenheim. Seven of their nine meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, so we're probably in for a few.

Looking at the stats, both teams are pretty similar going forward - both average 1.25 goals per game in their respective home/away fixtures. But Bremen have been a bit more solid at home recently, keeping a couple of clean sheets. Wolfsburg have only managed one clean sheet in ten games, which tells you all you need to know about their defence.

The odds have Bremen at 2.20 for the win, which seems about right to me. They're the form side, they're at home, and Wolfsburg are struggling badly. Yeah, the H2H is concerning, but you can't ignore how poor Wolfsburg have been. I reckon Bremen just about edge this one, probably in a game with a few goals.