Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction

Right then, let's talk about this tasty top-half clash. Hibernian at home, Motherwell coming to town. Two points between them in the table, so this is a proper six-pointer for those European dreams.

Hibs are the form team at Easter Road, no two ways about it. Look at their recent home results: a 3-2 win over league leaders Hearts, a 2-0 dismissal of Aberdeen, and a 3-0 thumping of Falkirk. They're scoring for fun – 2.2 goals a game on their own patch. They're confident, they're attacking, and they've won four of their last five in front of their own fans. The only blip was a 1-2 loss to Celtic, which is hardly a crime.

But here's the rub. Standing in their way is a Motherwell side that's built like a brick outhouse at the back. Their numbers are ridiculous. In their last ten games, they've conceded just TWO goals. Let that sink in. Two. They've kept eight clean sheets in that run. They went to Ibrox and only lost 1-0 to Rangers, they held Hearts to a 0-0 draw, and they even beat Celtic 2-0. This lot don't give anything away for free.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Motherwell just beat Hibs 2-0 a little over a month ago. Historically, it's fairly even, but that recent result will be in the minds of both squads.

So what's gonna give? Hibs' free-flowing home attack, or Motherwell's cast-iron defence? Motherwell's away form isn't as flashy as their overall record – just one win in their last four on the road – but they're still incredibly hard to break down, conceding only 0.5 goals per game away from home. They keep it tight, they keep possession (nearly 59% on average), and they pick their moments.

For the neutrals, it might not be a goal-fest. For the punters, the value might not be in picking a winner. This has the feel of a proper, tense, tactical battle. A 1-0 either way, or maybe a 1-1 if we're lucky. But given Motherwell's staggering clean sheet habit, the smart money says at least one of these teams fails to find the net.

Key Points:

Hibernian are formidable at home, scoring 2.2 goals per game on average.

Motherwell's defence is the story of the season so far – 2 goals conceded in 10 games, 8 clean sheets.

Motherwell won the reverse fixture 2-0 in November.

Motherwell's recent away games are low-scoring: they score 0.75 and concede 0.50 per game on the road.

• Both Teams to Score has happened in only 10% of Motherwell's last 10 matches.

The Simple Verdict: This is a classic clash of styles. My head says it's too close to call a winner, but the data is screaming one thing loud and clear: Motherwell don't concede, and they don't play in many goalfests. The value, at a nice price, is in backing at least one team to draw a blank.