Estrela vs Rio Ave Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Primeira Liga scrap between two sides who're both struggling to find their feet this season. Estrela are sitting 15th with just 7 points from 8 games, while Rio Ave aren't much better off in 12th with 8 points. This has got 'tight affair' written all over it, but don't let that fool you - both these sides are about as solid as a chocolate teapot at the back.

Estrela's recent form tells its own story: one win, four draws, and five losses in their last ten. They're averaging less than a goal per game (0.80) while shipping nearly two (1.80). They did manage a decent 3-0 win against rock-bottom AVS, but then got turned over 3-1 by Alpendorada in the cup. The home form isn't exactly inspiring either - just one win from their last four at their own patch.

Rio Ave, meanwhile, have been the draw specialists of the league - five draws already this season. They've got a slightly better attack (1.40 goals per game) but their defence is just as leaky (1.90 conceded). They showed what they can do with that 3-0 win against Tondela, but then followed it up with a 3-2 cup defeat to Sintrense. On their travels, they're yet to taste victory this season.

When these two have met before, it's been Rio Ave who've generally had the upper hand, winning three of the six encounters. But here's the thing - both teams have been finding the net more often than not. Three of their last six meetings saw both sides get on the scoresheet, and given how both teams are defending at the moment, I'd expect more of the same.

The stats don't lie here - Estrela are keeping clean sheets just 30% of the time, while Rio Ave are even worse at 20%. Both sides have shown they can score, but neither looks capable of keeping a clean sheet. With goal expectancies suggesting around three goals in this match, and both teams' defensive records being what they are, I'm fancying both teams to find the net.

Key Points:

• Both teams struggling near bottom of table

• Estrella: 0.70 points per game, Rio Ave: 0.80 points per game

• Rio Ave better attack (1.40 goals vs 0.80 goals)

• Both sides leaky defensively (1.80+ goals conceded per game each)

• Rio Ave draw-happy (5 draws already this season)

• 3 of last 6 H2H matches saw both teams score

• Both teams keeping few clean sheets (30% and 20% respectively)

This has got 1-1 or 2-1 written all over it. Both sides need the points, both sides can score, and both sides look vulnerable at the back. I'm backing both teams to get on the scoresheet here - it just makes sense given what we've seen from both teams this season.