Hibernian vs Aberdeen Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's Hibernian hosting Aberdeen at Easter Road on Tuesday night, and on paper, it's a cracker. Two sides separated by just three points in the table, both with eyes on that top six. But the form book, and more importantly, the recent results, are telling a story.

Hibs are buzzing after that massive 3-2 win over league leaders Hearts just a few days ago. That's the sort of result that lifts a place, and doing it at home shows they've got some bottle. Their home form is decent: three wins from their last five at Easter Road, scoring at a rate of 1.8 goals per game. They've put three past Falkirk and two past Dundee there recently. Yes, they lost to Celtic, but who doesn't? The point is, when they're on it at home, they score goals.

Aberdeen, on the other hand, have been a bit all over the shop. Their last away day in the league was a 3-1 defeat at Celtic Park. Before that, they shipped three in Europe to Sparta Praha. They've won on the road against the likes of Dundee and Livingston, but they're conceding an average of 1.75 goals per game away from home. That's a leaky defence travelling to face a side that knows where the net is.

Let's talk head-to-head. Hibs won the last meeting 2-1 back in October. Over the last few years, it's been pretty even, but the home side has often had the edge. At Easter Road, it's two wins apiece and a draw from the last five. This feels like a game where recent momentum counts for more.

The numbers back it up. Hibs are creating more chances at home (5 shots on target per game) compared to Aberdeen's 3.5 on the road. Aberdeen's shot accuracy away is a worrying 22% – they're not making their chances count. Meanwhile, Hibs are more clinical in front of their own fans.

Key Points:

Home Fortress: Hibernian have a 60% win rate at home in their last five, scoring nearly two goals a game.

Travel Sickness: Aberdeen concede 1.75 goals per game on their travels and have lost half of their last four away matches.

Form is King: Hibs are coming off a huge win over the league leaders; Aberdeen are winless in three (D1, L2).

Recent History: Hibs won the last encounter 2-1 in October.

• Goal Expectancy: The stats point to an average of nearly three goals, but the value might lie in the result.

So, what's the shout? The bookies have Hibs at 1.87 to win. That feels about right, but I think it's a touch of value. Aberdeen's defence on the road looks ripe for the picking, and Hibs have the firepower and the confidence to exploit it. I can see a home win, maybe 2-1 or 2-0.

My Tip: I'm backing Hibernian to win. The momentum, the home form, and the Dons' dodgy away record all point to three points for the Hibees.