Cadiz vs Almeria Prediction

The Segunda División presents a fascinating mid-table encounter as 11th-placed Cadiz host 4th-placed Almeria. On paper, Almeria holds the advantage with a five-point cushion and superior league position, but recent form tells a more complex story that suggests goals are almost guaranteed at both ends of the pitch.

Cadiz arrives on the back of a concerning three-match losing streak in the league, having fallen 1-0 to Huesca, 1-2 to Granada CF, and 0-1 to Albacete. This slump is particularly puzzling given their impressive victories earlier in the season, including a 2-0 win over high-flying Castellón and a 3-2 triumph against Sporting Gijon. Their home form is a tale of extremes: a 50% win rate from their last four home games, scoring an average of 2.00 goals but conceding 1.75. Defensive solidity is clearly not their forte, managing just one clean sheet in their last ten outings across all competitions.

Almeria's campaign has been similarly inconsistent. Their last match was a convincing 4-2 victory over AD Ceuta FC, but that followed a disappointing 0-1 defeat to Eibar. Their away form is particularly worrisome, with just one win in their last five road trips (a 20% win rate), scoring 1.20 goals per game while conceding 1.60. Like their hosts, Almeria has kept only one clean sheet in ten matches, highlighting a shared vulnerability at the back.

The head-to-head history between these sides screams goals. In their nine previous meetings, both teams have scored in eight of them—an astonishing 88.9% rate. Their most recent clash in November 2025 ended in a comprehensive 3-0 victory for Almeria, continuing a trend that has seen these matches average 3.00 total goals. Cadiz's home record against Almeria is respectable (two wins, two draws, one loss), but the pattern of both teams finding the net has been remarkably consistent.

Statistically, both teams are built for open, end-to-end encounters. Cadiz averages 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded over their last ten games, while Almeria posts nearly identical numbers at 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded. The underlying metrics reveal Almeria tends to dominate possession (55.7% average) and create more shooting opportunities (15.22 shots per game), but Cadiz has proven efficient at home, netting twice per game on average in front of their own fans.

Key Points:

• Historical Trend: Both teams have scored in 8 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings (88.9%).

• Defensive Frailties: Cadiz has kept 1 clean sheet in last 10; Almeria has kept 1 clean sheet in last 10.

• Home vs Away: Cadiz scores 2.00 goals per game at home; Almeria concedes 1.60 goals per game away.

• Recent Form: Cadiz is on a 3-game losing streak; Almeria is inconsistent with 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in last 10.

• Goal Environment: Combined average of 3.10 goals per game across both teams' last 10 matches.

Summary: While Almeria sits higher in the table, their poor away form and Cadiz's potency at home create a balanced matchup. The overwhelming historical evidence and current defensive vulnerabilities of both sides point strongly toward both teams scoring. For a tipster who demands near-certainty, the 88.9% historical rate of both teams scoring in this fixture provides the statistical confidence needed to recommend a bet, especially when combined with both teams' recent inability to keep clean sheets.