Almeria vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Segunda División mid-table tussle. Almeria, sitting 6th with 36 points, host AD Ceuta FC, just one point behind in 10th. On paper, it's a close one. But the recent form book tells a very different story, and that's where the value lies.

Almeria are having a proper wobble, no two ways about it. Two wins, two draws, and six losses from their last ten is relegation form, not promotion push material. They've lost their last two, going down 1-0 to Eibar and 2-1 at home to Deportivo La Coruna. Before that, they needed a 3-2 thriller to see off Granada CF. At home, it's not much better – just one win in their last four on their own patch. They're conceding goals for fun lately, letting in 17 in those ten games. The only clean sheet they managed in that run was a 0-0 draw with Huesca.

Now, AD Ceuta FC are coming in with the wind in their sails. Five wins, two draws, and three losses from their last ten is a tidy return. They smashed Cultural Leonesa 3-1 last time out and, crucially, they already beat this Almeria side 3-2 back in November. They've shown they can get results against good sides too, drawing with Las Palmas and Granada. Their away form is a bit patchy, but they did put three past Real Sociedad II on the road not long ago.

The head-to-head is a short and sweet story for Ceuta – one game, one win. That 3-2 victory will be fresh in the memory and gives them a real psychological edge coming into this.

When you dig into the stats, it paints a clear picture. Almeria like to have the ball (56% possession on average) but they're not doing much with it – their shot accuracy is a lowly 37%. Ceuta are more clinical, with 47% of their shots hitting the target. Most telling of all? Both teams have found it harder to keep the back door shut than a pub in a hurricane. Almeria have kept a clean sheet in just 10% of their last ten, Ceuta the same. Conversely, both teams have scored in 80% of Almeria's recent games and 70% of Ceuta's.

So, what's the play here? The match odds have Almeria as favourites at 1.70, which feels a bit generous given their current struggles. The draw at 3.98 and the Ceuta win at 5.00 might tempt some, but for my money, the smart bet is on goals at both ends. The numbers scream it, the recent results confirm it, and the 1.77 price for Both Teams to Score? That's the value.

Key Points:

Almeria are in dire form: 2 wins in their last 10 matches.

AD Ceuta FC are in much better nick: 5 wins in their last 10.

Ceuta won the reverse fixture 3-2 earlier this season.

Both teams have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their last 10 games.

• Both Teams Have Scored in 8 of Almeria's last 10 and 7 of Ceuta's last 10.

The Simple Tip: This has all the makings of an open, end-to-end game. Almeria are desperate for a result but leaky at the back. Ceuta are confident and know they can score against this lot. I'm backing goals at both ends. Get on Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.77.