Stevenage vs Stockport County Prediction

Alright mate, fancy a punt on League One this Saturday? Stevenage against Stockport County looks a tight affair on paper, but dig a little deeper and there’s a cracking value play staring us in the face at 2.62.

Stevenage have turned their place into a proper fortress lately. They’re unbeaten in their last five at home, winning three and drawing two. We’re talking about a side that’s just nicked 1-0 wins against playoff-chasing Huddersfield and in-form Peterborough (who’ve been picking up 2.2 points per game recently). They’ve only conceded 0.40 goals per game at home in their last five – tighter than a drum, that back line. Sure, their away form has been shocking (lost every single one of their last five on the road), but this is a different kettle of fish at the Lamex.

Now, Stockport County are no mugs – sitting pretty in 5th place and pushing for the playoffs. But here’s the rub: they’ve just been battered 3-0 by Burton Albion on Tuesday night. That’s only four days’ rest compared to Stevenage’s full week, and it’s their third game in fourteen days. The legs are heavy, mate. Their away form has gone a bit wobbly too – lost two of their last three on the road, including that Burton disaster and a 1-0 defeat at Bradford.

The head-to-head makes lovely reading for Stevenage fans as well. They’ve played Stockport twice at home in recent years and won both – 2-1 back in December 2024 and another victory before that. 100% record on their own patch against this lot.

The bookies have priced this up as a coin flip at 2.62 each of two, but that’s disrespectful to Stevenage’s home advantage and Stockport’s fatigue. With the hosts improving (trending up in goals scored, conceded, and points) and the visitors declining (trending down in points and goals), the value lies with the home side.

Key Points:

• Stevenage unbeaten in last 5 home games (3 wins, 2 draws), including wins over Huddersfield (1-0) and Peterborough (1-0)

• Stockport lost 3-0 at Burton on Tuesday with only 4 days rest vs Stevenage’s 7 days

• Stockport’s away form patchy: lost 2 of last 3 away trips (3-0 at Burton, 1-0 at Bradford)

• Head-to-head at Stevenage: 100% home win record (2 wins from 2)

• Stevenage trend improving vs Stockport trend declining

• Goal expectancy tight at 2.00 total goals, but Stevenage’s home defense (0.40 conceded per game) is the difference maker

I’m backing the hosts here. The 2.62 on Stevenage is overpriced given the circumstances – fresh legs, home fortress, and a tired Stockport side licking their wounds from midweek. It’s not a banker, but it’s the only bet with value in this one.