Wolves vs Arsenal Prediction

Right then, we've got a right old contrast at Molineux on Wednesday night. Bottom-of-the-table Wolves, who've been having a season to forget with just the one league win all campaign, host the high-flying Gunners who are sitting pretty at the Premier League summit. It's David vs Goliath, but while the result might seem a foregone conclusion, the prices tell a different story for us punters.

Now, looking at the form book, Wolves have actually shown a bit of fight lately. Three wins in their last ten might not sound like much, but when you've only won once in the league, you'll take victories over Grimsby (1-0 in the cup) and Shrewsbury (6-1 in the cup). That said, their league form is still grim - losses to Chelsea (1-3), Bournemouth (0-2), and Manchester City (0-2) show they struggle against the big boys. But here's the thing: at home, they've been finding the net, averaging 2.00 goals per game in their last five at Molineux. They've also kept four clean sheets in their last ten outings, including a 0-0 draw with Newcastle and a 1-1 with Manchester United, so they can dig in when they need to.

Arsenal, meanwhile, are purring. Seven wins from ten, including a 4-0 thumping of Wigan and a 4-0 away day at Leeds. They're banging in 2.40 goals per game on average and even on the road they're netting 2.20 per match. The only blot recently was that 2-3 defeat to Manchester United, but they bounced back with wins over Sunderland (3-0) and Chelsea (1-0 in the cup). They've won every single meeting with Wolves in the last nine attempts - that's nine wins from nine, scoring 19 and conceding just 3. The last time they met in December, Arsenal left with a 2-1 win.

Here's the rub though - Arsenal are 1.27 to win this. That's shorter than a London winter's day, and while they'll probably get the job done, there's no value there for us. Wolves might be bottom, but they're scoring at home, and Arsenal's attack is relentless. The numbers suggest we're looking at around 3.10 goals in this game, and with both sides finishing their chances well above average, I'm expecting a few goals.

At 1.73, the Over 2.5 Goals looks the play. Wolves have seen goals in their last four home league games, and Arsenal's away games have been entertaining affairs. Four of the last nine meetings have gone over 2.5, and with Arsenal needing to keep the pressure on at the top and Wolves desperate for points, this should open up nicely.

Key Points:

• Wolves are bottom with 9 points but have scored 2.00 goals per game at home in their last five

• Arsenal have won all nine previous meetings with Wolves, scoring 19 goals to Wolves' 3

• Arsenal are averaging 2.40 goals per game across their last ten matches

• The goal expectancy suggests 3.10 total goals (Home 1.40, Away 1.70)

• Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.73, offering value against the expected goal volume

Summary:

Arsenal will likely continue their 100% record against Wolves, but at 1.27 there's no meat on the bone. Instead, look to the goals market. With Wolves scoring freely at home and Arsenal's attack in top form, Over 2.5 Goals at 1.73 is the smart play. I'm expecting an entertaining game with three or more goals.