1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Sunday morning special in the 2. Bundesliga. Nürnberg are struggling down in 14th with just 7 points from 8 games, while Kiel are sitting pretty in 10th with 10 points. But it's not just about the league table - the numbers tell a proper story here.

Nürnberg's home form is, shall we say, not exactly terrifying the opposition. They're averaging a measly 0.4 goals per game at their own patch while letting in 1.4. That's not exactly the stuff of dreams, is it? They've only managed one clean sheet in their last 10 games, and that tells you all you need to know about their defensive solidity.

Kiel, on the other hand, have been proper solid on their travels. Two-thirds of their away games end in wins, and they're only letting in 0.5 goals per game on the road. They've kept five clean sheets in their last 10 matches - that's 50% of the time, which is decent business at this level.

The head-to-head doesn't make pretty reading for Nürnberg fans either. Kiel have won 5 of the 9 meetings between these two, including a 4-0 thumping last time they met. Nürnberg's home record against Kiel is 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses.

When you look at the recent results, Nürnberg did grab a decent 3-2 win away at Fortuna Düsseldorf, but that was on the road. At home, they've been struggling to find the net. Kiel have been grinding out results, with that 1-0 win at Schalke showing they can do the ugly stuff when needed.

The goal expectancy numbers are telling us to expect around 1.73 goals in this one, which points firmly towards a low-scoring affair. With Nürnberg barely scoring at home and Kiel being tight at the back, this has all the makings of a proper tactical battle.

Key Points:

• Nürnberg averaging just 0.4 goals per home game

• Kiel conceding only 0.5 goals per away game

• Kiel have 50% clean sheet rate vs Nürnberg's 10%

• Head-to-head heavily favors Kiel (5 wins to 2)

• Total expected goals: just 1.73

The numbers are screaming 'under' in this one. Nürnberg can't score at home, Kiel don't concede much away. Simple as that.