AC Milan vs Sassuolo Prediction

Right then, let's have a look at this Sunday lunchtime kick-off. AC Milan, sitting pretty at the top of Serie A, welcome Sassuolo to town. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch, but as we know, football isn't played on paper, is it?

Milan are the form side, no two ways about it. They've only lost once all season in the league and are joint-top with Napoli. Their recent results tell a story of a team that knows how to get the job done. They nicked a 1-0 win away at their rivals Inter, ground out a 1-0 win at home to a decent Lazio side, and showed real character to come from behind and beat Torino 3-2 last time out. At home, they're particularly strong, winning three of their last four and conceding just 0.75 goals a game on their own patch. They're solid, they're efficient, and they're top for a reason.

Sassuolo, on the other hand, are a bit of a puzzle. They're sitting in a respectable 8th place, but their form is all over the shop. One week they're smashing three past Atalanta away from home, the next they're losing at home to a struggling Genoa. Their last result was a 3-1 win over bottom-side Fiorentina, which is nice, but it doesn't hide the fact they've lost five of their last ten. Away from home, it's even more of a struggle, with just one win in their last six on the road.

Now, here's the spanner in the works – the head-to-head. Believe it or not, Sassuolo have a decent record at Milan's ground, winning three of the five previous visits. That'll give the visitors a bit of hope. But, and it's a big but, the last time these two met, Milan absolutely tonked them 6-1. So maybe the tide has turned.

When you dig into the numbers, Milan are the better side in almost every department. They average more possession, more shots on target, and a much better pass completion rate. Defensively, they're far more reliable, keeping clean sheets in 40% of their games compared to Sassuolo's 20%. Sassuolo do create chances and get plenty of corners, but they also give away more fouls, which could be dangerous against a top side.

The bookies have Milan as strong favourites at 1.42 to win. Sometimes those short prices can be a trap, but here I think it's just about right. Milan are the better team, in better form, and playing at home where they're dominant. Sassuolo's historical success here is the only thing giving me pause, but that 6-1 drubbing last season suggests Milan have figured them out.

Key Points:

AC Milan are top of Serie A with just one defeat in 14 games.

Milan have a strong home record, winning 75% of their last four at home.

Sassuolo are inconsistent, losing five of their last ten matches.

Head-to-head history shows Sassuolo have won 3 of 5 visits to Milan, but the last meeting was a 6-1 Milan victory.

• Milan boast better defensive stats and a higher clean sheet rate.

All things considered, I fancy Milan to continue their charge at the top. Sassuolo might make a game of it for a while, but the quality and consistency of the league leaders should shine through. The value, even at a short price, looks to be with the home win.