Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen Prediction

Right then, Scottish Premiership mid-table madness coming your way this Tuesday night as Dundee Utd host Aberdeen. Now, I know what you're thinking - it's not exactly the Old Firm, is it? But stick with me, because there's a lovely bit of value hiding in this fixture if you know where to look.

Let's start with the home side. Dundee Utd are sitting in 7th spot, and while they won't be troubling the European places, they've shown a bit of fight lately. They followed up that cracking 3-2 win away at Falkirk with a solid 1-1 draw against Kilmarnock at the weekend, making it three games unbeaten. The Tangerines have been finding the net too, bagging 14 goals in their last 10 outings.

But here's where it gets interesting. Aberdeen roll up to Tannadice with all the confidence of a turkey in December. The Dons are in freefall - seven defeats in their last ten games, and get this: they've lost their last five away matches on the spin without scoring a single goal. That's right, zero, zilch, nada. They couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo on the road right now. They even got battered 3-0 by Kilmarnock away recently, and Killie are second bottom!

The head-to-head makes even better reading for the home faithful. Dundee Utd have won four out of five against Aberdeen at home - that's an 80% win rate. The last time these two met back in December, it finished 1-1 at Pittodrie, but up in Dundee, it's a different story entirely.

Now, the bookies have Dundee Utd at 2.34 to win this, which looks a bit generous to me given Aberdeen's shocking away form. The Dons are shipping two goals a game on their travels and can't buy a goal themselves. Meanwhile, Dundee Utd are trending upwards with their goals scored and points picking up nicely.

Key Points:

• Aberdeen have lost their last 5 away games, scoring 0 goals and conceding 10 (including 0-3 vs Kilmarnock, 0-2 vs Motherwell, 0-2 vs Rangers)

• Dundee Utd have an 80% win rate against Aberdeen at home (4 wins from 5)

• Dundee Utd are unbeaten in their last 3 matches (1-1 vs Kilmarnock, 2-1 vs Spartans, 3-2 vs Falkirk)

• Aberdeen have lost 7 of their last 10 games overall (including 2-3 vs Dundee, 0-2 vs Motherwell)

• The Tangerines have scored 14 goals in their last 10 games compared to Aberdeen's 11

Summary:

Sometimes the best bets are the simple ones. Aberdeen can't score away from home, Dundee Utd love playing them at Tannadice, and the form book is pointing one way. At 2.34, the home win is where the smart money's going. Get on it before the odds compilers wake up!