Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash. On paper, this looks about as one-sided as they come - top-of-the-table Cruz Azul visiting rock-bottom Necaxa.

The league table tells you everything you need to know really. Cruz Azul are sitting pretty in 2nd place with 28 points from 13 games - that's proper top form with 8 wins, 4 draws, and only 1 loss all season. They're scoring goals, keeping things tight at the back, and generally looking like a team that means business.

Necaxa, on the other hand, are having an absolute shocker. They're 17th in the table with just 9 points - only 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses. Their recent form reads like a horror story: hammered 5-3 by Tigres, beaten 1-0 by Pachuca, lost 3-2 to Atlas, and 3-1 to Chivas. Their only win in their last 10 was a scrappy 1-0 against the only team below them, Puebla.

The home/away form makes for even grimmer reading for Necaxa fans. At home, they've managed just a 25% win rate and are scoring a pathetic 0.5 goals per game on their own patch. Cruz Azul away? They've won half their away games and are averaging 1.5 goals per game on their travels.

Head-to-head, it's all Cruz Azul too. They've won 4 of the 9 meetings, and more importantly, they've won the last three encounters 3-1, 3-0, and 3-1. Necaxa's home record against Cruz Azul is proper poor - just 1 win in 3 home meetings.

Cruz Azul just beat Club America 2-1 in their last game, which shows they can turn up against the big boys. Necaxa are shipping goals for fun too - 2.5 per game on average - and have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 10 matches.

Sometimes in football, you just have to follow the form, and right now Cruz Azul are flying while Necaxa are free-falling. The odds of 1.91 for an away win look about right to me, and given the massive gulf in class and form, that's where the smart money should be.

Key Points:

• Cruz Azul are 2nd in Liga MX with 28 points; Necaxa are 17th with just 9 points

• Necaxa have won only 1 of their last 10 games (1W, 1D, 8L)

• Cruz Azul have won 5 of their last 10 games (5W, 3D, 2L)

• Cruz Azul have won the last 3 head-to-head meetings (3-1, 3-0, 3-1)

• Necaxa score just 0.5 goals per game at home; Cruz Azul score 1.5 away from home

• Cruz Azul just beat Club America 2-1 in their last match

The Verdict: This has got Cruz Azul win written all over it. They're in form, they've got the historical edge, and they're playing against a team that can't buy a win at home. Sometimes the simplest bet is the best one.