Everton vs Chelsea Prediction

Goeiedag! Pajimon here. What do you mean no meat? We are talking serious football action between Everton and Chelsea this Saturday, 2026-03-21. I love my BBQ and beer, but today we are focused on the stats that lead to winning bets.

Everton are hosting at home. Their recent form shows they are scoring 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10. At Goodison Park, their home win rate is only 20%, but they have a decent goal difference of +1 over the last 10 games. They average 11.30 shots per game with a shot accuracy of 34.1%.

Chelsea are coming into this match fresh off a Champions League defeat to PSG (0-3) and a Premier League loss to Newcastle (0-1). However, their away form is actually quite strong. In their last 6 away games, they have a 50% win rate and are scoring 2.67 goals per game away from home. They average 15.30 shots per game with 36.7% accuracy.

Looking at the Head-to-Head, Chelsea has won 4 of the last 9 meetings, including a 2-0 win in December 2025. Everton has a 50% win rate at home against Chelsea historically, but recent meetings favor the Blues.

The math doesn't lie. The goal expectancy is 3.25 total goals (Everton 1.42, Chelsea 1.83). With both teams showing high goal output in recent form, the probability of seeing over 2.5 goals is strong. The odds are 1.80, implying a 55.5% chance. Based on the expected goal total, I see a higher probability, creating value.

So, grab your beer and let's get those points. The stats point to goals at both ends. I am going for Over 2.5 Goals.