Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash. Puebla are sitting down in 13th, having picked up just five points from their first five games. Meanwhile, U.N.A.M. - Pumas are flying high in fifth, still unbeaten this season with two wins and three draws. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch, but football's never that simple, is it?

Puebla's main problem lately is they've forgotten where the net is. They've not scored a single goal in their last three matches – two 0-0 draws against Club Tijuana and Toluca, and a 1-0 loss to Cruz Azul. Blimey, that's a proper goal drought. The positive spin is they've kept two clean sheets on the bounce, so they're getting harder to break down. Their only win this season was a 2-1 victory over bottom-side Mazatlán, which tells you they struggle against anyone with a bit of quality.

Now, the Pumas are a different kettle of fish. They're unbeaten in the league and pulled off a cracking 1-0 away win at second-placed Tigres UANL back in January. That's a proper statement result. But here's the rub – when they travel, they tend to leave the back door open. They're conceding an average of 2.20 goals per game on their travels. They even shipped four in a Champions League game recently. So, they can score – averaging 1.60 away from home – but you fancy they'll give the opposition a chance or two.

When these two get together, history heavily favours the visitors. Pumas have won five of the last nine meetings, including the last one 3-1. Puebla's home record against them is poor, with just one win in five. More than half of those clashes have seen over 2.5 goals fly in.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Pumas as favourites at 2.60. Given they're the better side, unbeaten, and facing a Puebla team that can't buy a goal, that looks like a bit of value to me. Puebla's newfound defensive solidity might make it tight, but Pumas have the quality to find a way. The 'Both Teams to Score' market is tempting given Pumas' leaky away defence, but the odds don't offer any real value.

Key Points:

Puebla are on a three-game scoreless streak.

Pumas are unbeaten in the Liga MX season (2W, 3D).

Pumas have a dominant head-to-head record (5 wins in last 9).

Pumas concede heavily on the road (2.20 goals per game).

• Puebla have kept two consecutive clean sheets.

In summary, while Puebla might be tough to break down, the gulf in quality and form should tell. The value lies with the away win.