Almeria vs Cordoba Prediction

Right then, gather round! We've got a proper tasty Segunda División clash on Saturday evening as third-placed Almeria host seventh-placed Cordoba down in sunny Andalusia. And if the numbers are anything to go by, you'd be mad to expect a quiet night at the office.

Let's start with the hosts, shall we? Almeria are sitting pretty in the automatic promotion spots with 45 points from 26 games, but here's the thing – they couldn't keep a clean sheet if their lives depended on it right now. We're talking zero clean sheets in their last ten matches, mate. Zilch. Nada. Both teams have scored in a whopping 90% of those games. Their recent results read like a basketball scorecard: 3-2 against Andorra, 4-2 against Ceuta, 3-2 against Granada. At home, they're banging in 2.4 goals a game, but they're shipping 2.0 at the other end. It's entertaining stuff, but it's giving their keeper nightmares!

Now, Cordoba roll into town with a game in hand and 41 points in the bag. They've been proper solid on their travels lately – winning 75% of their last four away days and only conceding 0.75 goals per game on the road. They've ground out results with that typical Spanish away-day savvy: 2-1 at Las Palmas, 2-1 at Huesca, 2-1 at Mirandes. They don't need many chances, but they take them.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading too. Almeria have absolutely dominated this fixture at home, winning 75% of the time when Cordoba come visiting. The last time these two met back in October, it finished 1-1, but before that Almeria put three and four past them without reply in consecutive meetings.

Looking at the goal expectancies – and this is where your old mate Simple gets his calculator out – we're looking at 1.57 for the hosts and 1.75 for the visitors. That gives us a combined 3.32 expected goals. With Almeria's defence leakier than a sieve and Cordoba finding the net in 7 of their last 10, the smart money's on this being a busy evening for the net bulgers.

Key Points:

• Almeria have kept zero clean sheets in their last 10 matches, with both teams scoring in 90% of those fixtures

• The hosts are averaging 2.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home – a recipe for overs

• Cordoba have won 75% of their last 4 away games and scored in 7 of their last 10 overall

• The Poisson goal expectancy of 3.32 suggests a 65% probability of seeing over 2.5 goals

• Almeria's last 5 home games against Cordoba have produced an average of over 3 goals per game

Summary:

With Almeria's attack firing on all cylinders but their defence having a shocker, and Cordoba more than capable of finding the net on the road, I'm backing the goals here. The 1.62 on offer for Over 2.5 Goals looks spot on – these two have served up thrillers before, and with the promotion race hotting up, I fancy another cracker. Get on the overs!