Kasımpaşa vs Genclerbirligi Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this scrap at the bottom of the Turkish Süper Lig. Both these sides are stuck on 14 points, just above the relegation muck, and they're both desperate for a result to climb the table.

Kasımpaşa have been absolutely shocking at home recently - not won in their last four on their own patch. They're averaging just 0.75 goals per game at home while shipping 1.75. That's not exactly fortress-like, is it? Their recent form reads like a proper horror story: 0-0 draw with Kocaelispor, 1-3 thumping by Başakşehir, and a 0-2 loss to Göztepe. They've managed just one clean sheet in their last ten games - shocking stuff.

Genclerbirligi, on the other hand, have shown a bit more spark recently. They're banging in 1.8 goals per game over their last ten, and they've just put three past Fatih Karagümrük and five past Sakaryaspor in the cup. They're not exactly world beaters away from home, but they are scoring goals.

Here's the thing though - Kasımpaşa have historically done well against these lads at home, winning three out of four meetings. But that was then, and this is now. Current form suggests Genclerbirligi have the edge, especially going forward.

Both teams leak goals like there's no tomorrow. Kasımpaşa have let in 70% of their recent games see both teams score, while Genclerbirligi aren't much better at 60%. When you've got one side that can't stop conceding at home and another that's scoring freely on the road, you're usually looking at both teams getting on the scoresheet.

The goal expectancy model has Genclerbirligi scoring around 1.7 goals, which tells you everything you need to know about where the value might be. Kasımpaşa might be rubbish at home, but they're not completely toothless, and Genclerbirligi's defence isn't exactly watertight either.

This has got 1-1 or 2-1 written all over it, and at 1.80 for both teams to score, that looks like the smart money to me.