Montpellier vs Annecy Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 2 scrap between Montpellier and Annecy. The home side are sitting pretty in 5th place with 21 points, while Annecy are lingering in 10th on 16 points. There's a bit of a gap between these two, and the form book suggests Montpellier should have too much quality here.

Montpellier have been decent at home lately, mind you. They've put Rodez to the sword 2-0 and absolutely hammered Nancy 4-1 in their last two home games. That's proper stuff, isn't it? They're averaging 1.67 goals per game at their own gaff and keeping things relatively tight at the back. Overall, they've bagged 5 wins in their last 10 games, with 4 clean sheets thrown in for good measure. They know where the back of the net is, scoring 13 goals in that period.

Annecy, on the other hand, have been a bit hit and miss on their travels. They've managed 3 wins in their last 10, but away from home they're conceding 1.4 goals per game. They did have that brilliant 4-0 win over Saint Etienne, which was proper quality, but they've also been turned over by Rodez (2-1) and Estac Troyes (3-1). They're scoring goals alright - 13 in their last 10 - but they're also shipping them at the other end.

When you look at the numbers, Montpellier are averaging 1.70 points per game recently compared to Annecy's 1.20. That's a significant difference, isn't it? The home side are also better defensively, conceding just 0.9 goals per game compared to Annecy's 1.1. Both teams score similar amounts, but Montpellier have that extra bit of quality at the back.

The odds of 1.85 for a home win look about right to me. Montpellier have the form, the home advantage, and they're sitting higher up the table for a reason. Annecy can be dangerous going forward, but their away form is a bit dodgy, and they might struggle against a solid Montpellier side.

Key Points:

• Montpellier 5th in table vs Annecy 10th - clear quality gap

• Home side averaging 1.70 PPG vs Annecy's 1.20 PPG

• Montpellier solid at home: 2-0 vs Rodez, 4-1 vs Nancy recently

• Annecy conceding 1.4 goals per game away from home

• Both teams score similar (1.3 per game) but Montpellier tighter defensively

The Verdict: Montpellier should have enough quality to see this one out. They're in better form, playing at home, and have been more consistent overall. Annecy might make a game of it, but I fancy the home side to edge it.