Preview
Mr SimpleRight, folks, grab a pint and settle in, because this one's got a story that's hard to argue with. Criciuma are at home on 12 October to face America Mineiro, and if you've been following the numbers, you'll know exactly where this is heading.
Let's start with the elephant in the room — America Mineiro. Five games. Five losses. Zero goals scored. That's not a bad run of form, that's a team that's simply not there. They've been shut out by Fortaleza, Atletico Goianiense, Juventude, Vila Nova and São Bernardo in succession, and the last time they put the ball in the net was... well, it's not in the last five. Their away record over 20 games is 1 win, 6 draws and 13 losses, with 0.7 goals a game and 1.8 conceded. That's a side that travels and folds.
Now look at Criciuma at home. Twenty games at their ground: 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses. They score 1.45 a game and concede 0.85. Ten clean sheets in twenty. That's a team that comes home and does the business. And the head-to-head seals it — Criciuma have won both of the last two meetings, 2–1 at home in October 2025 and 1–0 away in June 2026. America haven't beaten them in the last two years.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play, is that Criciuma's last five has been a bit of a rollercoaster. They lost 0–1 at Ceara just four days ago, and before that they were beaten 0–2 at home by Operario-PR and 0–4 at Atletico Goianiense. Three losses in five, and they've failed to score in three of those. So they're not flying. But the home record over 20 games is the real yardstick here, and that's a side that wins 11 out of 20 at home. One bad run doesn't erase that.
And here's the thing that really gets me — America haven't scored in five. Not one. Not a flicker. Against a Criciuma defence that's kept ten clean sheets in their last 20 home games, that's a recipe for a quiet afternoon.
Key Points:
- America Mineiro have lost their last five and scored zero goals in that span
- Criciuma's home record: 11 wins from 20, with 10 clean sheets
- Criciuma won both recent head-to-head meetings (2–1 and 1–0)
- America's away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 13 losses in 20 games
- Both teams' last five matches saw at least one side fail to score
So here's my call. Criciuma at home against a side that hasn't scored in five and has won just once in 20 away games? I'm backing the home win. The market's pricing it at 1.42, which implies about 70% chance, but the numbers say Criciuma are better than that. I'd put them at around three-quarters. That's value, and it's a straightforward one.