Preston vs Birmingham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash between Preston and Birmingham. The lads from Deepdale are sitting pretty in 8th with 16 points, while Birmingham are struggling down in 17th with just 12 points.

Preston have been decent at home this season, winning half their games and scoring 1.5 goals per match on their own patch. They kept it tight against Charlton in a 2-0 win and had a decent result against Leicester earlier in the season. But they did lose 2-1 to West Brom in their last outing, so they're not exactly unbeatable.

Birmingham, on the other hand, have been shocking on their travels. Just one win in five away games and they're only managing to bang in 0.6 goals per game away from home. That's proper poor, that is. They lost 2-3 to Hull City last time out and got hammered 3-0 by Coventry before that. Their away form is about as convincing as a wet paper bag.

When you look at the head-to-head, it's actually pretty even - Preston have won 2, Birmingham 2, with 1 draw in 5 meetings at Deepdale. But current form counts for more in my book, and Birmingham's away form is absolutely dreadful.

The stats paint a picture of a low-scoring game. Preston average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while Birmingham average 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded. Put 'em together and you're looking at about 2.2 goals expected. Birmingham especially struggle to score away from home, and Preston aren't exactly free-scoring either.

Looking at recent results, most of Preston's games have been tight affairs - 2-1, 2-0, 2-2, 0-0. Birmingham's games have been similar, though they've been on the wrong end of a few thumpings.

The bookies have got Under 2.5 goals at 1.53, and given both teams' scoring records, especially Birmingham's away form, that looks like decent value to me. I reckon we're in for a proper slog rather than a goal fest.

Key Points:

• Preston sitting 8th vs Birmingham 17th in the table

• Preston strong at home (50% win rate)

• Birmingham dreadful away (20% win rate, 0.6 goals per game)

• Both teams average under 1.5 goals scored per game

• Recent results show mostly low-scoring matches

• Head-to-head at Preston is evenly split historically

The Verdict: This has all the makings of a tight, niggly Championship affair. Birmingham can't buy a goal away from home, and while Preston are solid at home, they're not exactly prolific. Under 2.5 goals looks the smart play here.