Plymouth vs Reading Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Boxing Day cracker in League One. Plymouth and Reading are both sat on 25 points, smack bang in the middle of the pack, and neither will want to be the turkey left out in the cold after this one.

Plymouth are a funny old side at the minute. Their form guide looks lovely – five wins from their last six in all competitions. But dig a bit deeper and you'll see the story is all about their travels. They've been brilliant on the road, winning 1-0 at Wycombe and Port Vale, and even smashing Doncaster 5-1 last time out. The problem is at home. In their last three at their own gaff, they've lost 0-3 to Northampton, lost 0-1 to Bradford, and only just scraped a 1-0 win over Rotherham. They're averaging a measly 0.33 goals a game at home in their last ten. That's not great, is it?

Reading, on the other hand, are a bit more steady. They've drawn a fair few (seven from twenty league games) and are hard to beat on their day. They've had some decent results, like beating Stevenage 1-0 and Luton 3-2 recently. Away from home, they're a bit hit and miss – a 3-0 win at Blackpool was followed by a 2-0 loss at Bradford. They do score on their travels though, averaging 1.33 goals a game.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Plymouth fan. Reading have won both of the last two meetings, including a 4-2 thriller back in 2019. Not that it means much now, but it's a little psychological nudge.

So, what's gonna happen? Plymouth are in good nick but can't buy a goal at home. Reading can score but are prone to the odd off-day. The stats tell a clear story: Plymouth's matches see both teams score only 20% of the time, while Reading's see it 60% of the time. Something's got to give.

Key Points:

Plymouth have won 5 of their last 6, but all the excitement has been away from home.

At home, they've scored just 1 goal in their last 3 games (0.33 per game on average).

Reading are draw specialists (7 from 20 games) and score regularly on the road (1.33 per game).

Plymouth's matches feature both teams scoring in only 2 of their last 10.

• The bookies have this as a coin flip, with Plymouth at 2.40 and Reading at 2.62.

All this points to one thing for me – I can't see both teams finding the net. Plymouth's home attack is too blunt, and while Reading will probably score, I fancy Plymouth might struggle to reply. The value shout here is Both Teams to Score - NO at a tasty 2.05.