Espanyol vs Alaves Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga clash. Espanyol at home to Alaves. On paper, it's a bit of a no-brainer – the home side are sitting pretty in 5th, while Alaves are down in 15th, a full 12 points behind. But football's never that simple, is it? Let's dig into the numbers and see where the value lies.

Espanyol have hit a bit of a rough patch, no two ways about it. They've lost their last three in the league: a 3-2 defeat at Valencia, followed by back-to-back 2-0 home losses to Girona and Barcelona. Now, losing to Barcelona is one thing, but getting turned over by Girona at your own gaff is a bit of a worry. Before that slump, they were ticking along nicely with wins against the likes of Sevilla and Celta Vigo. The key here is their home form: from their last four at home, it's two wins and two losses. They're scoring less than a goal a game on average at home (0.75), which isn't great, but they're also facing an Alaves side that's a bit of a soft touch on the road.

And that's the story for Alaves, really. At home, they're a different beast – they just beat a decent Real Betis side 2-1. But away from home? It's been a proper struggle. In their last four away trips, they've lost three: 1-0 to Atletico Madrid, 3-1 to Villarreal, and a real hiding, 3-0, at Osasuna. That's an average of 1.75 goals conceded per game on their travels. They've only mustered one goal per game away too. So, they come to Barcelona with a serious travel sickness problem.

Now, the head-to-head makes for very pleasant reading if you're an Espanyol fan. In four meetings at this ground, Espanyol have won the lot. Four wins, zero draws, zero losses. That's a proper mental edge. Alaves did win the reverse fixture 2-1 back in November, but that was on their patch. History says when these two meet here, the points stay with the home side.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Espanyol at 2.05 to win. That implies they think Espanyol have about a 49% chance. I reckon that's a bit stingy. Given the league table gap, the historical home dominance, and Alaves's dire away form, I'd put Espanyol's chances closer to 55%. That makes the 2.05 price look like a bit of value. Alaves might be improving overall, but their away woes are a glaring weakness. Espanyol need to bounce back after a couple of poor results, and this is the perfect fixture for it.

Key Points:

Espanyol are 5th, Alaves are 15th – a 12-point gap in the table.

Espanyol have lost three league games in a row, but two were against top sides (Barcelona, Valencia).

Alaves have lost three of their last four away league games, conceding an average of 1.75 goals.

Espanyol have a 100% home win record against Alaves (4 wins from 4).

• Espanyol's home attack has been quiet (0.75 goals/game), but Alaves's away defence has been leaky.

All things considered, I'm backing Espanyol to get the job done here. They're the better side, they're at home, and they're facing a team that doesn't travel well. It's time for them to stop the rot and get back to winning ways.

My Tip: Espanyol to Win.