Konyaspor vs Rizespor Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Turkish Super Lig clash between two sides who are basically neighbours in the table - Konyaspor in 11th and Rizespor in 12th, separated by just one point. But don't let those league positions fool you, mate, there's a right old story in the form here.

Konyaspor have been proper shocking at home lately, winning just one of their last five on their own patch. They're shipping goals for fun at home - two per game on average - and have only kept one clean sheet in their last ten matches overall. They've been beaten by Samsunspor (1-3), Besiktas (0-2), and Kocaelispor (2-3) in front of their own fans recently. Not exactly fortress-like, is it?

Rizespor, on the other hand, have been brilliant on their travels. Unbeaten in their last four away games with two wins and two draws. They're banging in 2.75 goals per game away from home - that's some serious firepower. They put five past Antalyaspor on their last league away trip and even managed to score twice against top-of-the-table Fenerbahçe in a 5-2 defeat.

When these two have met historically, it's been pretty even - three wins each and three draws. But six of those nine meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, which tells you something about how these games tend to pan out.

Looking at the stats, both teams love a goal-fest. Konyaspor games see both teams score 70% of the time, while Rizespor's are at 60%. The goal expectancy model is predicting nearly four goals in this one, and when you see that Konyaspor concede two at home while Rizespor score nearly three away, you start to see why.

The bookies have got Konyaspor as slight favorites at 2.00, but honestly, looking at the form, that seems a bit generous. Rizespor's away form versus Konyaspor's home form is like night and day.

Key Points:

• Konyaspor have won just 20% of their last 5 home games

• Rizespor are unbeaten in their last 4 away matches (2W-2D)

• Both teams concede regularly - Konyaspor 1.8 per game, Rizespor 1.4 per game

• Rizespor score 2.75 goals per game away from home

• 6 out of 9 H2H meetings have gone over 2.5 goals

• Both teams have scored in 70% of Konyaspor's recent games

Given all this, I'm backing goals in this one. Both defences are about as solid as a chocolate teapot, and both attacks know where the net is. Rizespor's away scoring record combined with Konyaspor's home defensive record screams 'over' to me.