HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction

The HNL brings us a classic clash between second-placed HNK Hajduk Split and mid-table NK Slaven Belupo. On paper, the hosts are clear favourites, sitting 10 points ahead in the standings and boasting a formidable historical record. But as your friendly underdog tipster, I'm always looking for the cracks in the favourite's armour, and recent results suggest there might just be a glimmer of hope for the visitors.

Hajduk Split's form has hit a noticeable bump. After a convincing 4-0 friendly win over Posušje, they've stumbled in league action, suffering back-to-back 1-0 and 1-2 defeats to HNK Gorica and Istra 1961 respectively. While their home record remains strong with a 60% win rate and an average of 2.00 goals scored per game, those recent losses at home to Istra and a 1-1 draw with NK Varazdin show they are not invincible. Their defence at home is typically tight, conceding just 0.80 goals per game on average, but the attack has shown it can be stifled.

Enter NK Slaven Belupo, the ultimate underdog in this fixture. The head-to-head record makes for grim reading: zero wins in nine attempts, with seven losses and two draws. However, that zero in the win column is precisely where we find the value. Crucially, the most recent meeting in November 2025 ended in a 0-0 stalemate, proving Belupo can frustrate their more illustrious opponents. Their recent away form is built on a foundation of draws; their last three competitive away trips have all ended level – 2-2 with a strong HNK Rijeka side, 0-0 with NK Osijek, and 1-1 with Istra 1961. They are organised on the road, conceding just 1.00 goal per game away from home.

Statistically, Hajduk dominates possession (66.7% at home) and creates more shots (16.67 per home game), but Slaven Belupo are no pushovers, averaging 14.33 shots away. The key battle may be whether Slaven's defence, which has kept only one clean sheet in ten, can withstand the pressure. Given Hajduk's recent scoring woes (just one goal in their last two league games), a resilient Belupo performance is on the cards.

Key Points:

Historical Dominance: Hajduk Split have won 7 of the 9 H2H meetings, but the last one was a 0-0 draw.

Hajduk's Home Stumble: Lost 1-2 to Istra 1961 at home in their last league match at their own ground.

Belupo's Draw Specialist Tag: Unbeaten in their last three competitive away games, all draws (2-2 vs Rijeka, 0-0 vs Osijek, 1-1 vs Istra).

Defensive Resilience: Slaven Belupo concede only 1.00 goal per game on their travels.

• Goal Expectation: Modest, with historical H2H games often low-scoring; 4 of the last 5 meetings had under 2.5 goals.

Summary: The market heavily favours Hajduk Split at home, and for good reason given the table and history. But the underdog whisperer in me sees a clear pattern of Slaven Belupo grinding out draws on the road against decent opposition. Combined with Hajduk's recent dip in results and the goalless draw in the reverse fixture, the odds of 3.91 for the draw offer tangible value for a side that knows how to be difficult to beat away from home. I'm backing the little puppy to bark loudly and secure a precious point.