Stevenage vs Bradford Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this cracker! Two teams bang in form and sitting pretty at the top of League One. Stevenage are second, Bradford are third, separated only by goal difference. Proper six-pointer this one, even if we're only in October!

Stevenage have been absolute bosses at home this season - winning 83% of their games at the Lamex. They're tighter than a Scotsman at closing time defensively, letting in just 0.67 goals per game on their own patch. That's some serious organisation, that is. They did slip up against Lincoln recently (1-0 loss), but before that they were smashing teams about - including a tasty 5-2 win over Crystal Palace's kids in the trophy.

Bradford, on the other hand, are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde outfit. At home they're brilliant, but on their travels they've been about as convincing as a politician's promise. Only 25% win rate away from home, and they leak goals for fun - 2.25 per game on the road! They've been drawing too many lately, sharing the points with Barnsley (2-2) and Rotherham (2-2).

Now, here's the rub - the head-to-head is all Bradford. Seven wins to Stevenage's one in nine meetings. But form's temporary, class is permanent, and right now Stevenage look the business at home. Bradford might score plenty (2.30 per game), but they also concede plenty (1.60 per game), especially away from home.

The stats tell a story - Stevenage are solid as a rock at the back, Bradford are a bit gung-ho. With Stevenage's home form being so strong and Bradford's away form being so shaky, I'm leaning towards the home side here. The odds of 2.30 for a Stevenage win look about right to me, maybe even a touch generous given what we're seeing.

Key Points:

• Stevenage have won 83% of home games this season

• Bradford have won only 25% of away games

• Stevenage concede just 0.67 goals per game at home

• Bradford concede 2.25 goals per game away from home

• Both teams are level on 25 points at the top of the table

• Head-to-head favors Bradford historically (7 wins to 1)

• Stevenage's recent form: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in last 10

• Bradford's recent form: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in last 10

This has all the makings of a proper tight affair between two teams who know how to win. But given Stevenage's fortress-like home form and Bradford's travel sickness, I'm backing the hosts to edge it. Sometimes you've got to ignore the history books and go with what you're seeing right now, and right now Stevenage look the business at home.