Preview
Mr SimpleRight, let's get into this one. Bengaluru are at home and they've been in proper form, while SC Delhi are having a rough time on the road. The numbers tell a pretty clear story, and I think it's one that favours the hosts.
Bengaluru have gone unbeaten in their last five matches – two wins and three draws – and they've won their last two, scoring three and conceding just one. That's the kind of run that gives you confidence walking into a home game. Their home record over 20 games shows 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses, averaging 1.45 goals a game and conceding 0.9. Ten of those 20 home games ended in a clean sheet. That's a solid base to build on, and the current form is pointing in the right direction.
Now look at SC Delhi's away record. Nine games on the road and they've won just one, drawn two and lost six. They average 1 goal scored and 1.89 conceded per away game, and they've only kept a clean sheet once in those nine. Their last five matches have been winless – three draws and two losses – and they lost their most recent game 1–2 at ATK Mohun Bagan. That's a team that's not finding it on the road, and it's hard to see them turning it around in Bengaluru.
The head-to-head is thin – just one meeting, back in February at Bengaluru's ground, which Bengaluru won 2–0. So we can't read too much into it, but it does show SC Delhi haven't had a good day at this venue. The matchup tables back it up too: Bengaluru's home points per game sit at 1.55 while SC Delhi's away figure is 0.56, and Bengaluru score 1.45 per home game to SC Delhi's 1 per away game.
The counter-argument? Well, Bengaluru's home record does include seven draws out of 20, and their last home game was a 0–0 with Mumbai City. SC Delhi have kept two clean sheets in their last five, and their away record does show they've managed a goal in most of those games. It's not impossible for this to be a tight, low-scoring affair, and the fact that Bengaluru's home record spans 18 months means some of those results are a bit dated.
Key Points:
- Bengaluru are unbeaten in their last five (2W 3D 0L) and have won their last two
- SC Delhi are winless in their last five and have only 1 win from 9 away games
- Bengaluru's home record: 8W 7D 5L, 1.45 goals scored per game, 0.9 conceded
- SC Delhi's away record: 1W 2D 6L, 1 goal scored per game, 1.89 conceded
- The only head-to-head meeting at Bengaluru's ground ended 2–0 to the hosts
Bengaluru win at 1.67 is the pick. The market prices them at 59.88%, but the gap in current form and the away record tells me the hosts are more likely to get the job done than that price suggests.