Club Queretaro vs Santos Laguna Prediction

Alright, listen up! We've got a proper basement battle on our hands here in Liga MX, and if you're looking for a safe harbour in this storm, I reckon I've spotted one. Club Queretaro are hosting Santos Laguna, and frankly, it's a case of the not-so-good against the downright dreadful.

Now, Queretaro aren't exactly setting the world alight sitting 14th in the table with just five points from six games. But compared to Santos? They're practically Real Madrid. The home side have been steady if unspectacular – that 2-0 win against Leon a couple of weeks back showed they can get the job done against weaker opposition, and they've kept things tight at the back in their own patch, conceding just 0.4 goals per game in their last five at home. That's proper solid, mate.

But Santos, blimey... Santos are in absolute freefall. Bottom of the pile with one solitary point from seven games, and their away record? Don't make me laugh. Five away games, five defeats, shipping 3.6 goals per game on the road. They just got battered 5-1 by Tigres and 4-0 by Pumas. Even Leon – who've been struggling themselves – put two past them last week. It's a car crash with no brakes.

The head-to-head shows Santos actually won the reverse fixture 3-1 back in October, but that was a different time when they had some fight about them. Now? They're leaking goals like a sieve with no holes plugged, and their confidence must be through the floor.

The bookies have Queretaro at 1.85 to win this, and while that might seem skinny for a team in 14th, against a side that's lost every single away game this season and conceded 26 goals in their last ten matches, it looks like a gift. The maths says there's value here – I'm giving Queretaro a 60% shot at this, which beats the implied 54% from those odds.

Key Points:

• Santos Laguna have lost all 5 of their last away games, conceding 3.6 goals per game on the road

• Queretaro have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 games and concede just 0.4 goals per game at home

• Santos are bottom of Liga MX with only 1 point from 7 games, shipping 26 goals in their last 10 matches

• Queretaro beat Leon 2-0 at home recently and drew 0-0 with high-flying Pachuca

Summary: This is a simple one for me. Santos are a mess, Queretaro are at home and solid enough. Back the home win at 1.85 before the bookies realise how bad Santos have become.