Stockport County vs Luton Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper gander at this League One clash between the league leaders Stockport County and the mid-table Luton. On paper, this looks like a proper mismatch, but as we know in football, that's why they play the games!

Stockport are absolutely flying at the moment, sitting pretty at the top of the table with 28 points from 14 games. Their recent form is top-notch - 6 wins in their last 10, including some proper decent results like that 3-0 hammering of Port Vale and solid 1-0 wins over Exeter and Blackpool. At home, they've been proper tough to beat, not losing in their last 5 at their own patch (60% wins, 40% draws). They're scoring nearly 2 goals per game at home and only letting in 1, which is the kind of form that gets you promoted.

Luton, on the other hand, are having a bit of a mixed time of it. Down in 10th with 19 points, they've won 4 of their last 10 but lost 5. The big worry for them is their away form - only 20% win rate on their travels, scoring just 1 goal per game and conceding 2. They did get a decent 1-0 win at Northampton recently, but they've also been beaten by Mansfield and Stevenage, which tells you they can be got at on the road.

The head-to-head shows Luton have won all 3 previous meetings, but those were back in 2012-2013, which is ancient history in football terms. Current form is what matters, and on that front, Stockport have the edge all day long.

Looking at the stats, Stockport are averaging 2 points per game over their last 10, while Luton are only managing 1.3. The home side are creating more chances too - averaging 13.67 shots per game compared to Luton's 13.22, with better shot accuracy (36.1% vs 33%).

The odds have Stockport at 2.30 for the home win, which seems decent value to me. They're the form team, playing at home, against a side that struggles on the road. I'd fancy Stockport to get the job done here, probably by a couple of goals given they're scoring freely at home and Luton are leaky away.

Key Points:

• Stockport top of League One with 28 points, Luton 10th with 19 points

• Stockport unbeaten in last 5 home games (3W, 2D)

• Luton only 20% win rate away from home, conceding 2 goals per game

• Stockport averaging 1.90 goals per game overall, 1.80 at home

• Luton scoring just 1.00 goal per game away from home

• Recent form favors Stockport: 2.00 points per game vs Luton's 1.30

The bottom line is that Stockport are playing like a team that means business this season. They're solid at home, scoring goals, and keeping things tight at the back. Luton's away form is a real concern, and I can't see them getting much joy against the league leaders. The home win looks the call here.