Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 1 clash down at the Velodrome. Marseille are flying high in second place, while Le Havre are struggling down in 14th, and frankly, the gulf in class looks massive.
Marseille have been absolutely lethal at home this season - 100% win rate in their last five home games, and they're averaging a whopping 3.4 goals per game on their own patch. Just look at their recent home performances: they smashed Ajax 4-0 in the Champions League, put four past Lorient, and even hammered Paris FC 5-2. They've also kept clean sheets in 40% of their games, so they're not all attack either.
Le Havre, on the other hand, are having a right old time of it away from home. Zero wins in their last five away games, and they're only managing to score 0.4 goals per game on their travels. That's not just bad, that's relegation-form bad. They've been drawing a few games lately (2-2 with Rennes, 0-0 at Metz), but against a Marseille side that's scoring for fun, I can't see them keeping it tight.
The head-to-head tells the story too - Marseille have won four of the five meetings, scoring 14 goals and only conceding four. Last time out, it was a comfortable 3-1 win for Marseille.
When you look at the numbers, Marseille are averaging 2.3 goals per game overall, while Le Havre are barely managing 0.9. At home, Marseille are scoring 3.4 per game, and Le Havre are conceding 1.4 away. The goal expectancy for this match is 2.90, which suggests we're in for plenty of goalmouth action.
The odds for Over 2.5 goals are sitting at 1.62, and given Marseille's home scoring record and Le Havre's defensive frailties on the road, that looks like decent value to me. Marseille have been hitting the net regularly at home, and even though Le Havre have been drawing lately, they've been doing it against weaker opposition.
Key Points:
- Marseille are perfect at home this season (100% win rate)
- Le Havre haven't won any of their last 5 away games
- Marseille score 3.4 goals per game at home
- Le Havre only score 0.4 goals per game away
- Head-to-head: Marseille have won 4 of 5 meetings
- Goal expectancy for this match is 2.90 goals
Given Marseille's attacking firepower at home and Le Havre's struggles away from home, I'm backing the goals. Marseille have been putting teams to the sword at the Velodrome, and even if Le Havre manage to nick one, I can see this going over 2.5 goals comfortably.
