Spezia vs Reggiana Prediction

Alright, listen up! We've got a proper relegation scrap on our hands down in Serie B this Saturday afternoon. Spezia are hosting Reggiana, and with just a point separating these two in the bottom half, it's all about who wants to stay in this division more.

Now, Spezia might be sitting in 17th spot with only 25 points from their 26 games, but don't let that fool you into thinking they're useless at home. The lads have won half of their last four at their own gaff – that's two wins from four, including a solid 1-0 victory over Avellino and a 2-1 triumph against basement boys Pescara. And let's not forget their last outing – a cracking 3-2 win away at Cesena, which shows they've got a bit of fight left in them when the chips are down.

But it's Reggiana's away form that really catches my eye here, and not in a good way for them. The visitors are 15th with 26 points, but their travels have been nothing short of disastrous. Zero wins in their last five away days, losing four of them, including a proper shocker against rock-bottom Pescara (2-1 defeat) and another loss to struggling Sampdoria. When you're losing to the teams around you on the road, that's a massive red flag. They're only managing 0.6 goals per game away from home while shipping 1.6 at the other end – those numbers don't lie, mate.

Looking at the recent head-to-head, it's been pretty even stevens with two wins apiece and a couple of draws from the last six meetings. However, Spezia have the edge when playing at home against this lot, winning two of their three home clashes with Reggiana.

The bookies have Spezia at 1.95 to take the three points, which looks a decent price to me. Given Reggiana's travel sickness – they've lost 80% of their last five away games – and Spezia's decent home record, there's value in backing the hosts here. The goal expectancies suggest a tight affair (1.3 to 0.8), which fits with both teams struggling for goals, but Reggiana's inability to find the net on the road tips the scales for me.

Key Points:

• Reggiana are winless in their last 5 away games (0-1-4), losing 80% of them

• Spezia have won 50% of their last 4 home matches

• Reggiana recently lost to bottom-placed Pescara (2-1) away from home

• Spezia coming off an impressive 3-2 victory at Cesena

• Both teams average under 1 goal per game recently, but Reggiana's away record is particularly poor (0.6 scored, 1.6 conceded)

Summary: With Reggiana showing absolutely nothing on their travels and Spezia finding a bit of form at home, the 1.95 on a home win is the way to go. It's not a banker by any means in a relegation six-pointer, but the maths and the form book both point to the hosts having the edge.