Juve Stabia vs Bari Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Juve Stabia and Bari. The lads from Stabia are sitting pretty in 10th, while Bari are languishing down in 17th - and believe me, there's a good reason for that gap.

Stabia have been decent at home lately, winning three of their last four on their own patch. They've had some proper mixed results recently mind you - a cracking 2-2 draw with league leaders Monza shows they can mix it with the best, but then they went and lost 1-0 to struggling Sampdoria. That's football for you, innit? They're averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, so they're not exactly defensive masters but they know where the goal is.

Now Bari... oh dear. Their away form is absolutely shocking. Zero wins in their last five on the road, and they're shipping goals like there's no tomorrow - 2.6 per game away from home! They've just been hammered 5-0 by Empoli and lost 3-2 to Frosinone. Their defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot at the moment.

When these two have met before, it's been pretty even overall (3 wins each), but Stabia have the edge when playing at home. The stats don't lie here - Stabia are scoring 1.75 goals per game at home while only letting in 0.75. Bari away? Just 0.8 scored and 2.6 conceded. It's not rocket science, is it?

The bookies have Stabia at 2.00 for the win, which looks pretty tasty to me. Given how terrible Bari are on their travels and Stabia's decent home record, I reckon there's value here.

Key Points:

• Stabia have won 75% of their last 4 home games

• Bari haven't won any of their last 5 away matches

• Bari are conceding 2.6 goals per game on the road

• Stabia scored 2 against league leaders Monza in their last home game

• Bari have shipped 8 goals in their last 2 matches

The Verdict: This looks like a home win to me. Stabia are solid enough at home and Bari are absolutely dreadful away. The 2.00 odds for a home win look generous given the massive gulf in home vs away form here.