NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin Prediction

Alright, gather round. We've got a proper mid-table scrap in the HNL this Friday, and if you like goals, you might want to pull up a chair. NK Slaven Belupo hosting NK Varazdin is about as close as it gets – just one point separates them in 5th and 6th. But forget the league table for a minute, let's talk about what really matters: the net bulging.

Belupo at home are like that mate who always orders one more round than he should – fun, but it gets messy. In their last seven at their gaff, they're scoring an average of 2.71 goals. Lovely. The problem? They're also letting in over two a game. Their last ten matches have seen both teams score a whopping nine times. They drew 2-2 with a decent Rijeka side last time out, but before that, it was a 2-4 friendly loss to Lokomotiva and a 2-5 league hiding from Dinamo. The defence has been on its holidays since last summer.

Now, Varazdin on the road are no shrinking violets either. They've won three of their last five away, scoring at a rate of 2.20 goals per game. They just nicked a 2-1 win at Gorica and, more impressively, bagged a 1-1 draw at second-placed Hajduk Split before the break. They're in a rich vein of form, with their goals scored and points haul both on the up, according to the trends.

The head-to-head is dead even – four wins apiece from nine games. But here's the kicker: Belupo's home record against Varazdin is actually poor, with just one win in four. The last couple of meetings finished 3-1, so we know these two can produce a result when they get together.

When you crunch the numbers, it's screaming for goals. Belupo's home games average nearly five total goals. Varazdin's away games average over three. Both teams score in the vast majority of their games. The bookies have the Over 2.5 Goals price at a tempting 2.15, which feels a bit generous given the firepower on show and the leaky defences.

Key Points:

Belupo's last 10 games have seen Both Teams Score in 9 of them (90%).

Belupo's home games average a whopping 4.85 total goals (2.71 scored, 2.14 conceded).

Varazdin are in good away form, winning 60% of their last five on the road.

Varazdin score 2.20 goals per game away from home.

• The last H2H meetings have seen 3-1 scorelines, and recent form for both points to an open, high-scoring affair.

So, what's the verdict? Sometimes you look at a fixture and everything points to one thing. This one has 'goals' written all over it in big, bold letters. Trying to pick a winner is a coin toss, but backing the net to ripple at least three times? That's where the smart money is this Friday.