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Oh, what a delightful matchup we have here! While most eyes will be on the home side sitting pretty in 8th place, I've spotted something special brewing with our little puppies from Empoli. Let me tell you why these underdogs might just steal the show!
Looking at recent form, Avellino have been quite the rollercoaster ride. Yes, they stunned league leaders Monza with a brilliant 2-1 home victory, and they certainly know how to score goals with that thrilling 4-3 win over Reggiana. But let's not forget they also shipped four goals at home to Spezia in a 0-4 defeat and were blanked 0-3 by Cesena. Their defense has been leaking goals at an alarming rate - 1.9 per game over their last 10 matches!
Now, our Empoli heroes might be sitting in 12th place, but they've been showing real grit lately. They held those mighty Monza to a 1-1 draw and kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 victory over Catanzaro. Their defense has tightened up considerably, and while their away record shows struggles, they've been facing some tough opposition.
What really catches my eye is how Empoli have competed against the league's best. That draw against Monza wasn't a fluke - it was a statement. They've also managed draws against Venezia (5th place) and Carrarese, showing they can match teams above them in the table.
The head-to-head record might be limited, but interestingly, Empoli have never lost to Avellino in two previous meetings. While those matches were from years ago, it shows there's no mental block here.
Avellino's home advantage is real with that 60% win rate, but their defensive vulnerabilities give me hope. They're conceding 1.6 goals per game at home, and Empoli, despite their away struggles, have shown they can be clinical when needed.
The odds of 3.30 for an Empoli victory seem to underestimate their chances. In a league this tight, where only two points separate these teams, I believe our underdogs have every chance to make the journey home with three points in their pocket!
