New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution Prediction

Early doors in the MLS season, mate, and already we’ve got a cracking Eastern Conference clash on the cards. New York Red Bulls host New England Revolution looking to make it two wins from two, while the Revs are licking their wounds after a proper pasting on the road.

The Red Bulls kicked off their campaign with a tidy 2-1 win away at Orlando City – not a bad start by anyone’s standards. But here’s the rub: they’ve been about as comfortable at home as a bloke wearing woolly socks in a heatwave. Just one win in their last five at their own gaff (20% win rate), with three defeats and a draw thrown in for good measure. They’re only averaging 1.20 goals per game at home and shipping 1.60.

Now, cast your peepers over New England. They took a right hammering in their opener – 4-1 down at Nashville SC, and that’s not the first time they’ve come unstuck on their travels. They’ve lost their last three away games on the spin, conceding a whopping 3.00 goals per game while barely mustering 0.67 at the other end. It’s been a nightmare on the road for these lads.

But here’s where it gets tasty for the home side. The Red Bulls absolutely love playing New England at home. We’re talking 80% win rate in the last five meetings here – four wins and a draw, zero defeats. The last time these two hooked up, it was a 5-3 goal-fest. The numbers suggest NYRB create plenty against this lot, averaging nearly two goals a game in those home H2Hs.

Looking at the underlying stats, the Red Bulls are firing 13.4 shots per game compared to the Revs’ 9.4, and the goal expectancies make for pleasant reading if you’re wearing red – 2.10 for the hosts versus just 1.13 for the visitors. New England’s shot accuracy away is a measly 27.7%, which explains why they’re struggling to find the net on the road.

Key Points:

• NYRB have won 80% of home meetings with New England (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)

• New England have lost their last 3 away games, conceding 3 goals per game on average

• NYRB opened with a 2-1 win at Orlando; New England were beaten 4-1 at Nashville

• Goal expectancies heavily favor the home side at 2.10 vs 1.13

• New England averaging just 0.67 goals per game in away matches

Summary: The Revs’ travel sickness and NYRB’s dominant home record in this fixture make the home win look the business. At 1.80, you’re getting decent value for a side that should win this two times out of three. Back the Red Bulls to keep their perfect start going.