Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction

Alright, let's have a proper look at this one. Crystal Palace at home to Burnley – on paper, it's a game the Eagles should be winning. They're sitting 13th with 32 points, while Burnley are down in 19th with just 15. That's a 17-point gap, which in this league is massive. But as we know, football isn't played on paper, is it?

Palace's form has been, well, a bit naff if we're honest. Just one win in their last ten – although that was a tidy 1-0 away win at Brighton last time out. Before that, it was a lot of draws and losses. At home, it's been even tougher; they haven't won in their last four at Selhurst Park, drawing with Aston Villa and Fulham but losing to Chelsea and Tottenham. They're scoring just half a goal per game on their own patch and conceding 1.25. Not exactly free-flowing stuff.

As for Burnley, they're in a right old scrap at the bottom. One win in ten too, but that was a 5-1 cup romp against Millwall. In the league, they're the draw specialists – five of their last ten have ended all square, including credible ones at Liverpool and at home to Manchester United. But on the road, it's bleak: no wins in their last four away, scoring only 0.5 goals per game and conceding nearly two. They're finding it very hard to get over the line.

Now, here's the clincher for me: the head-to-head. Palace have won the last three meetings against Burnley – 1-0, 3-0, and 2-0. They seem to have their number. Burnley haven't scored against Palace in any of those three games.

So, what's gonna happen? I can't see this being a classic. Both teams are struggling for goals, especially in these specific home/away scenarios. Palace will be buoyed by that win at Brighton, and Burnley's confidence must be low after recent losses to West Ham and Sunderland. I fancy Palace to just about do enough, but it won't be pretty.

The maths says the fair price for Under 2.5 goals is much shorter than what's on offer. With both teams averaging a goal per game between them in these fixtures, and with recent history being so low-scoring, the value shout is for a tight, nervy affair.

Key Points:

Palace are 17 points and 6 places above Burnley in the table.

Palace have won their last three meetings against Burnley, keeping clean sheets in all three.

Palace's home form is poor (no wins in last 4), but Burnley's away form is worse (no wins in last 4).

Both teams average just 0.5 goals per game in these home/away matches.

• The recent trend for both sides is 'Both Teams to Score' in 60% of games, but history between them suggests otherwise.

Summary: It's a proper mid-table vs relegation scrap. Palace have the better squad, the better recent record in this fixture, and just got a win. Burnley are desperate but blunt away from home. I expect a cagey game with few chances. The value isn't in backing the short-priced home win, it's in backing a low-scoring game.