SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Bundesliga battle between two sides who could both do with a win, but for very different reasons. Freiburg are sitting pretty in 11th, while St. Pauli are scratching around in 15th and looking over their shoulders.

Now, if you've been following Freiburg's recent form, you'll know they've been proper hard to beat. In their last 10 games, they've only lost once - and that was to Bayer Leverkusen, who're no mugs. They've drawn six times, including some decent results like 0-0 at Union Berlin and 1-1 with Hoffenheim. At home, they're scoring 1.75 goals per game and haven't lost in their last four at their own patch.

St. Pauli, on the other hand, are having a right old time of it. They've managed just two wins in their last 10, and their recent form reads like a horror story: 0-4 at home to Gladbach, 0-2 at Frankfurt, 0-3 to Hoffenheim. Away from home, they're averaging just half a goal per game - that's not going to win you many matches in this league, is it?

When these two have met before, Freiburg have had the edge, winning two of the three matches played at Freiburg. The last time they faced each other, Freiburg nicked it 1-0.

Looking at the stats, Freiburg are keeping clean sheets 40% of the time, while St. Pauli manage it just 10% - and that's telling you something about their defensive solidity. Freiburg are also conceding less than a goal per game on average, whereas St. Pauli are letting in nearly two.

The bookies have Freiburg at 1.83 for the win, and that looks about right to me. They're solid at home, hard to beat, and up against a team that can't buy a goal away from home. Sometimes the simple bet is the best bet, and this feels like one of those times.