Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Union St. Gilloise are sitting pretty at the top of the tree, three points clear of Club Brugge. Meanwhile, Zulte Waregem are down in 10th, a whopping 15 points behind. On paper, this should be a walk in the park for the leaders. But as we know, football isn't played on paper, it's played on a cold, wet pitch in December.

First, the history. And blimey, it makes for grim reading if you're a Zulte fan. In seven meetings, Union have won all seven. Seven! That's not a rivalry, that's a ritual sacrifice. The goals tally is 21-4 to Union. They battered them 4-1 away just last month and then did them 2-1 at home in the cup a couple of weeks back. Zulte have never taken a single point off this lot. That's a massive psychological mountain to climb before a ball is even kicked.

Union's form has been a bit mixed lately, but you have to look at who they've been playing. Drawing with Charleroi and Gent in the league is okay, but they've also been mixing it with the big boys in the Champions League. Their last ten show they're still a threat, scoring 15 goals. More importantly for us, they've only kept two clean sheets in that run. At home, they're conceding 1.25 goals a game on average. They're not exactly Fort Knox.

Now, Zulte. What are they? They're the king of the draw, that's what. Two wins, six draws in their last ten. They don't lose often, but they don't win much either, especially on the road where they've only won 17% of the time. The key thing is, they score goals. They've netted in eight of their last ten games, including against Union twice this season. They average 1.5 goals on their travels. They might be a bit leaky at the back, but they know where the net is.

So, what's the play here? The bookies have Union at a skinny 1.27 to win. That's probably about right, but where's the fun in that? The real value, in my book, is in the goals market. Six of the seven head-to-head clashes have seen over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in four of them, including the last two this season. Union's games see both teams score 70% of the time, Zulte's a whopping 90% of the time.

Zulte will come, have a go, and probably score – they usually do. But can they stop Union? Not based on the last seven attempts. The league leaders will create chances; they average over 14 shots a game. I can see another 2-1 or 3-1 type scoreline, just like the recent cup game.

Key Points:

Union are top and have a perfect 7-0 record against Zulte.

Zulte are draw specialists but struggle for wins, especially away.

Both teams have scored in 70% of Union's and 90% of Zulte's last 10 games.

The last two meetings this season finished 4-1 and 2-1 to Union.

• Union have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.

The Simple Verdict:

All signs point to a home win, but the short odds on that aren't for me. The smarter punt is on both teams finding the net. The stats scream it, the recent history nods along, and at nearly 2/1 odds, it's the value bet of the night.