Millwall vs Leicester Prediction

Right then, let's fire up the BBQ and talk some proper football! Millwall hosting Leicester this weekend, and I'm liking what I see from the Lions.

Millwall are sitting pretty in 3rd place with 20 points, and their home form is something special - winning 66.67% of their last 6 home games. They just smashed Stoke City 2-0 and put three past West Brom in a convincing 3-0 victory. Sure, they had that bad day against Coventry (0-4), but everyone has an off day, ja? The important thing is they bounced back strong.

Leicester, on the other hand, are the draw kings of the Championship - 5 draws in their last 10 games! They're sitting 8th with 17 points, but they just lost 1-2 to Hull City and could only manage a 1-1 draw with Portsmouth at home. Their away form is nothing to write home about either - just 33.33% win rate on the road.

When these two meet, it's always competitive - 9 games, Millwall 4 wins, Leicester 5 wins, and get this... NO DRAWS! Millwall has won exactly half their home games against Leicester (3-3 record), and with the Lions' current home form, I'm backing them to make it 4-3.

Leicester might have more possession (55.6% vs Millwall's 47.3%), but Millwall are much more accurate in front of goal at home (48.5% shot accuracy vs Leicester's 30.2% away accuracy). Both teams score around 1.3 goals per game, but Millwall's home advantage should be the difference maker here.

The odds of 2.70 for a home win look like proper value to me. Leicester are too draw-happy away from home, and Millwall are turning their place into a fortress.