Athletic Club vs Oviedo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Athletic Club welcome Oviedo to their patch, and frankly, both sides could do with a result. The lads from Bilbao are sitting 11th with 14 points, but their recent form has been shocking - just 2 wins in their last 10 games. They've been leaking goals like a sieve, conceding 16 in that run.

Oviedo are propping up the table in 19th with a measly 8 points, but here's the interesting bit - they've actually been a bit more competitive lately. Three draws in their last five, including a cracking 3-3 with Girona and a goalless against Osasuna. They're scoring more on their travels too, netting 1.4 per game away from home compared to just 0.4 at their own gaff.

Athletic's home form is their saving grace - 50% win rate in their last four at home, banging in 1.5 goals per game. But they've just come off a tough 2-0 loss to Newcastle in the Champions League, and they've only got 4 days rest compared to Oviedo's 6. That could be telling.

Both sides are defensively shambolic - Athletic keeping just 1 clean sheet in 10, Oviedo only managing 2. When you look at the numbers, this screams low-scoring affair. The goal expectancies have Athletic at 1.65 and Oviedo at 1.20, which doesn't exactly suggest a goal fest.

The bookies have Athletic as favourites at 1.50, but that looks a bit short given their terrible form. The draw at 3.70 might tempt some, but I'm looking at the goals market. Under 2.5 at 1.67 looks about right - both teams are poor at the back, but neither has been particularly prolific either.

Key Points:

• Athletic in dreadful form with just 2 wins in 10 games

• Oviedo showing signs of improvement with 3 draws in last 5

• Athletic decent at home (50% win rate) but awful away

• Oviedo score more away from home (1.4 vs 0.4 at home)

• Both teams defensively vulnerable - conceding 1.6 goals per game

• Athletic have less rest time (4 days vs 6 for Oviedo)

The Verdict: This has got 1-0 or 1-1 written all over it. Both teams need the points but lack the quality to break each other down consistently. I'm backing under 2.5 goals - it's the sensible play when you've got two out-of-form teams who can't defend but can't really score either.