Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this Brazilian Serie A clash between Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC. On paper, this looks like a mismatch of epic proportions - Cruzeiro sitting pretty in 3rd place with 53 points, while Fortaleza are languishing in 18th, just three points off the relegation playoff spots.
Cruzeiro have been solid as a rock at home this season, winning 80% of their last 10 home games. They've been grinding out results recently though, drawing their last three matches 1-1 with Atletico-MG, 1-1 with Sport Recife, and 0-0 with Flamengo. Before that little blip, they were on a proper tear, beating the likes of RB Bragantino and Sao Paulo. They're averaging 1.3 goals per game while keeping it tight at the back with just 0.7 conceded.
Fortaleza, on the other hand, are in a right old mess. They've managed just 3 wins in their last 10 games, with a shocking 7 defeats. They're scoring a measly 0.8 goals per game while shipping 1.6 at the back. Away from home, it's even worse - just a 20% win rate and they're conceding 2.2 goals per game on their travels.
Now here's where it gets interesting. Despite Cruzeiro's brilliant home form, their head-to-head record at home against Fortaleza is shocking - 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. Fortaleza seem to have their number when they visit. The last meeting ended 2-0, though the data doesn't specify who won that one.
Looking at the stats, both teams have been pretty low-scoring recently. Cruzeiro's last three games have all had under 2.5 goals, and Fortaleza have been involved in some tight, low-scoring affairs too. With both teams averaging under 1.5 goals per game over their last 10 matches, and considering the odds on offer, the value seems to be in the under 2.5 goals market.
The bookies have got this as a 50/50 call at 1.90 for both over and under, but given the recent form and scoring patterns, I reckon there's more value in backing under 2.5 goals here.
