Blackburn vs Southampton Prediction

Bottom Boys Battle: Can Saints Sink Rovers?

Preview

Ag man, this is like watching two braais where the meat just won't cook properly! Blackburn are absolutely rock bottom of the Championship - dead last with only 7 points from 10 games. Their home form is shocking, winning just 16.67% of their home matches and scoring a pathetic 0.83 goals per game at their own place. They've lost 4 of their last 6 at home, including getting smashed 3-1 by Sheffield Utd who are also struggling.

Southampton aren't exactly setting the world alight either, sitting 17th with 12 points, but they look like Barcelona compared to Blackburn. They've drawn 5 of their last 10 games - not exciting but at least they're not losing every week. Away from home, they actually score goals (1.57 per game) even if their defense is leakier than a cheap cooler box (1.71 conceded).

The head-to-head tells a story - Southampton smashed these guys 4-0 last time they met, and Blackburn have NEVER beaten Southampton. The Saints dominate possession (56.1% vs 48.9%) and are much more accurate in front of goal (36.7% vs 28.7%).

Here's the thing - both defenses are absolutely shocking. Southampton's away games see nearly 3.3 goals on average, and 70% of their recent games have both teams scoring. Blackburn concede 1.67 goals per game at home, so this could be an open affair despite both teams being near the bottom.

Key Points:

  • Blackburn are dead last in the Championship with terrible home form (16.67% win rate)
  • Southampton score 1.57 goals per game away but also concede 1.71
  • 70% of Southampton's recent games see both teams score
  • Head-to-head shows Southampton won 4-0 last time they met
  • Both teams have leaky defenses - this could be higher scoring than expected

Given how poor both defenses are and Southampton's tendency to be involved in open games away from home, I'm backing both teams to find the net. Blackburn might be rubbish but they do score occasionally at home, and Southampton's attack should have enough to breach that leaky Rovers defense.

Match time
Recommended Bet
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE YES
Odds
1.80
+EV
+17.0%
Estimated Chance65%
Stake & Profit
Stake:-Profit:0.00
Outcome
OPEN