Empoli vs Modena Prediction

In the middle of the Serie B season, two paths cross. Empoli, tenth with 27 points, welcomes Modena, sixth with 33. Yet, the table deceives, it does. Recent journeys tell the true story.

Look at the last ten steps, we must. Empoli, five wins, one draw, four defeats. Points per game, 1.60. Goals scored thirteen, conceded ten. Clean sheets in half their matches, a fortress of sorts they have built. But recent stumbles, concerning they are. A 3-0 defeat at Carrarese, then a 1-0 home loss to Sudtirol. Before that, a victory at Cesena, a strong foe. Inconsistent, the force is with this team.

Modena's path, rockier it has been. Two wins, three draws, five losses in their last ten. Points per game, only 0.90. Goals scored nine, conceded eleven. Away from home, they find slightly more success: two wins, one draw, two losses in their last five travels. A creditable 0-0 draw with high-flying Palermo they earned, followed by a 2-0 win at struggling Pescara. Yet, a 2-0 defeat at Padova preceded that. Unpredictable, they are.

The only past meeting this season, a 2-1 victory for Modena. An advantage, this may give them. But at Empoli's home, different the battle will be.

Deep into the numbers, we go. Empoli at home averages 1.60 goals scored, 1.00 conceded. Modena away averages 1.20 scored, 1.00 conceded. A low-scoring affair, this suggests. The statistical trends whisper it: Empoli's goals scored are declining, their last three matches yielding only 0.33 goals on average. Modena's goals conceded are improving. Both teams boast strong clean sheet rates – 50% for Empoli, 40% for Modena. When both teams scored, a rarity it has been: only 20% of Empoli's last ten games, and 40% of Modena's.

The market sees a close match. Modena, the slight favourite at 2.20. But value, in the goal markets it lies. The odds for both teams not to score sit at 1.91. Wise, this price appears.

Key Points:

Empoli's form is inconsistent but they keep clean sheets in 50% of matches.

Modena's recent away form shows resilience, with a draw against Palermo and a win at Pescara.

Both teams have struggled for goals recently (Empoli: 0.33 avg last 3; Modena: 0.67 avg last 3).

Head-to-head favour Modena, but that was an earlier, different encounter.

• The data strongly suggests a match where at least one team fails to find the net.

To bet on goals flowing here, a gamble it would be. The wiser path, to side with defensive solidity and recent scoring struggles. Both Teams to Score - No, the recommendation is.