Girona vs Alaves Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga scrap. Girona are in a right old mess at the bottom of the table - rock bottom with just 7 points from 11 games. That's relegation form, that is. They've only managed one win all season, and looking at their recent results, it's not hard to see why.

Their last five games read like a horror story: beaten 2-1 by Getafe, a 3-3 draw with fellow strugglers Oviedo, a 2-1 loss at Barcelona, and let's not forget that 0-4 hammering at home to Levante. They're leaking goals like a sieve - 1.7 per game on average - and only keeping clean sheets in 10% of their matches. At home, they've won just 20% of their last five games. Not exactly fortress territory, is it?

Now Alaves, they're a different kettle of fish altogether. Sitting pretty in 8th place with 15 points, they've been grinding out results. Four wins, three draws, and three losses in their last ten shows they know how to pick up points. More importantly, they're solid at the back - only letting in 0.8 goals per game. They've even got a 30% clean sheet rate, which looks world-class compared to Girona's efforts.

The away form might surprise you - Alaves have actually won 40% of their last five on the road. They're scoring 1.8 goals per game away from home, which is more than enough to trouble this Girona defence. Recent results show they can turn it on too - that 7-0 cup win was proper stuff, and they beat Espanyol 2-1 in their last league outing.

The head-to-head shows Girona have historically done OK against Alaves, but form over history, mate. Current form tells a completely different story. Girona have won just 1 of their last 10 games. Alaves have won 4. The goal expectancy says Alaves should score nearly two goals here while Girona might struggle to get one. That tells you everything you need to know.

Sometimes the stats just scream at you, and this is one of those times. Girona are in freefall, Alaves are steady and picking up points. The away side actually has a better away win rate (40%) than Girona have at home (20%). When you're getting better odds on the team with better form, better defence, and better recent results... well, that's what I call value.